DOW 23,000+ today?

[Grant 302]

Just normal market forces. I don't see any evidence of real monkey business.

Sometimes, the market simply has a hard time finding or 'making' buyers. Elections have a tendency to do that. The results don't necessarily matter...just that they're over.

Any market needs to periodically 'test' averages. Short term say 20 day gets tested pretty frequently. But watch out when longer periods like 100 and 200 day averages haven't been tested in a while (SMA, EMA - doesn't really matter). Eventually, those averages get tested or crossed even when the general direction is still the same.

Days like yesterday 'shake the tree'...some of the monkeys gotta fall out.

 

[VoodooBoss]

I agree, this is a pretty plain vanilla market correction. It looks more dramatic because of the large numbers but if you look at the percentages it's not that big and very comparable to other corrections. Plus it is October...

 

[TymeSlayer]

Speaking of Blood, Sweat and Tears... (Another post)

What goes up must come down
Spinnin' wheel got to go 'round
Talkin' 'bout your troubles it's a cryin' sin
Ride a painted pony let the spinnin' wheel spin

 

[302BOB]

Get in that Boss and take no prisoners................

 

[TymeSlayer]

Your right Bob, if the market gets you down, ride your painted pony!

 

[Grant 302]

Tree is getting shaken again this morning...

 

[Fat Boss]

Your right Bob, if the market gets you down, ride your painted pony!

My folks are in their 80's. They can't agree on what to invest in, so my mom does tech stocks and my dad does old cars. His comment, "if the market crashes, I still have my cars."

 

[Fat Boss]

My mom laughs when I ask her if she's in conservative investments because of her age. She does quite well.

 

[Grant 302]

My folks are in their 80's. They can't agree on what to invest in, so my mom does tech stocks and my dad does old cars. His comment, "if the market crashes, I still have my cars."

That's a good thing. I'm glad my parents don't have the same investing practices.

 

[Grant 302]

Relief bounce/rally this AM. Still maintaining the ~23,800 target. Cashed/rolled some of the hedges with the near term profits. 'Cheap' protection below that level, if my target ends up being conservative (ends up *much* lower than that).

 

[VoodooBoss]

If you get a chance watch the CNBC segment with Carter Worth below. I worked with Cornerstone Macro and have met this guy and he's pretty sharp. I liked his analysis of where we are in the current market cycle.

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/10/...about-to-get-worse-before-it-gets-better.html

 

[302BOB]

My mom laughs when I ask her if she's in conservative investments because of her age. She does quite well.

It's a crap shoot no matter how old you are........your Mom is one happy camper!!! Cherish your tyme with her!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Grant 302]

Carter is *definitely* one of the better/good presenters on CNBC, IMO. Might be 'talking his book' a just a little there though. I don't think the market needs to test that low, and his channel could use some exponential adjustment - JMO.

My take is that this second 'leg' down is enough of a pullback, but that a third (or more) is certainly possible and would fit in the timeframe both he (ave. 40 day) and I (around election day) suggest. If I saw things more like him, I would have let *everything* ride yesterday, and just add positions for lower.

 

[TymeSlayer]

Drank that Koolaid

 

[Grant 302]

Decent relief bounce and End-of Month effects in play. Re-bought some of the stuff (put side) I sold on Monday. Friday and next week expiry positions for cheap.

 

[Grant 302]

I think there's a good chance that the bottom is in. Might need one more small dip (not lower than this last low) to 'confirm'.

 

[VoodooBoss]

I agree with Grant, most of the drama is over although if the GOP retains the house you could see a melt up in prices very quickly. I don't think that's going to happen though.

 

[Grant 302]

Ready for the melt-up! Expecting new highs before/by early next year. (Jan-Feb). Maybe another small dip between now and then, but no 'new' near-term low.

Nice move so far and a good drop in volatility/vix to go with.

 

[Grant 302]

'minor' prediction for tomorrow is AM dip but higher close for the day.

There's near term topping action seen today, but still looks bullish in the weekly action.

 

[TymeSlayer]

I'm waiting to move from my cash position until about a week before Christmas. This will allow the market to settle and we all know about the trend of people buying in the last day before a holiday.