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DOW 23,000+ today?

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TymeSlayer

Tramps like us, Baby we were born to run...
3,787
2,740
Exp. Type
HPDE
Exp. Level
3-5 Years
Brighton, Colorado
Dow 30K before the end of February. Than a correction and probably a relative big one at that. I think the NASDAQ will hit 10K around the same tyme.
 

Grant 302

basic and well known psychic
Price action still says we're clear for new highs through Q3. Once 27k falls, a relatively quick run to high 29k seems reasonable. Say 29.7-29.8k before the shorts really pile in. My loose time target is for end of Sept '19.

Ironically, it'll be the shorts that fuel the rise as they cover losing positions from every new high.

Be long and prosper.

Evaluating this target...seems like I was pretty close with the index value but not really the timeframe. And we still have to see if there’s a bit more pullback and consolidation below 30k levels. Against the current peak of 29,373, my predictions are only off in the 1.1-1.45% range. Seems less like dumb luck in that context.

For short term moves...The predicted target I had on Wednesday was for 27,700-28k which I suspect will be hit early next week.
 

TymeSlayer

Tramps like us, Baby we were born to run...
3,787
2,740
Exp. Type
HPDE
Exp. Level
3-5 Years
Brighton, Colorado

Grant 302

basic and well known psychic
Somebody's taking it in the shorts...


Tesla short sellers are down $8 billion in 2020, including $2.5 billion alone from Monday’s pop

It's only a problem for those that don't have some sort of hedge and are 'naked' shorts. And even for all the perma-bears that I know personally, none are dumb enough to operate naked.

The type of investor that would benefit most from this article is ironically, a large institutional short who sold this last peak.

---

Today's action looks like a relief bounce to me. Used the first half hour of the day to roll and reinforce the put positions. Added to OTM call side with about half the profits toward the end of the session. Still carrying the downward short term (daily/week) bias for now.
 

Ludachris

Chris
Staff member
Moderator
1,658
1,962
Exp. Type
HPDE
Exp. Level
5-10 Years
Newcastle, CA
It's only a problem for those that don't have some sort of hedge and are 'naked' shorts. And even for all the perma-bears that I know personally, none are dumb enough to operate naked.

The type of investor that would benefit most from this article is ironically, a large institutional short who sold this last peak.

---

Today's action looks like a relief bounce to me. Used the first half hour of the day to roll and reinforce the put positions. Added to OTM call side with about half the profits toward the end of the session. Still carrying the downward short term (daily/week) bias for now.
Maybe one of these days I'll learn enough about the stock market to understand half of what you just said in that last paragraph... It's something I've always been intrigued by but have never put time into learning. Then again, you need money on hand to be able to invest, first. :)
 
1,482
408
Hey Grant, what's you opinion on what the virus is going to do to the markets? I certainly don't trust the Chinese gov to tell us exactly how many are infected at this point. With 30k+ cases being reported, it looks like it's just going to make it into the general population. If they don't find a cure or vaccine, it'll kill approx 165M people if the 3% mortality rate holds up. What's that going to do? Just curious of your opinion.
 

Grant 302

basic and well known psychic
Hey Grant, what's you opinion on what the virus is going to do to the markets? I certainly don't trust the Chinese gov to tell us exactly how many are infected at this point. With 30k+ cases being reported, it looks like it's just going to make it into the general population. If they don't find a cure or vaccine, it'll kill approx 165M people if the 3% mortality rate holds up. What's that going to do? Just curious of your opinion.
Eventually, it's not going to amount to much. I was most concerned about it 12 days ago...before the US border was 'closed' and the contagiousness was more clear. I believe that the Chinese cover up is largely done. I think even they see that there's no good reason to continue or significantly under report numbers.

2% will not be a global fatality rate. Even it it does 'get out', which I don't think it will now.

As for market and actual economy effects...hard to say exactly, but I'd consider myself optimistic in general that most businesses are capable of working around the issue. That's not to say that there aren't ones that are fubar while this is going on.

Yesterday, there were new highs still hit in the major indices. I think that mostly speaks for itself.

Still looking for volatile consolidation at these levels this year. If I'm wrong, it could be a big move to the up side.
 

TymeSlayer

Tramps like us, Baby we were born to run...
3,787
2,740
Exp. Type
HPDE
Exp. Level
3-5 Years
Brighton, Colorado
Not Grant but...

It's certainly going to affect the supply chain for manufacturing. To what degree - who knows. IMHO, we are close to a vaccine and am not concerned for the long haul.
 

Grant 302

basic and well known psychic
Used the first half hour of the day to roll and reinforce the put positions.
These rolled positions are 'losing money', but are 'free' after cashing in previous winning positions.


Added to OTM call side with about half the profits toward the end of the session.
These were the 'hedge' position and made money yesterday. Most of it was cashed, but part of the profit is 'rolled' and new OTM (out of the money) positions were bought in 'straddle' and 'strangle' configuration. Of which the put side is paying a bit today, but no action taken so far. Might just cash some of it.

Still carrying the downward short term (daily/week) bias for now.
Ditto.
 

Grant 302

basic and well known psychic
Not Grant but...

It's certainly going to affect the supply chain for manufacturing. To what degree - who knows. IMHO, we are close to a vaccine and am not concerned for the long haul.
Agreed. You're not Grant. ;)

But yes, companies that operate more with 'just in time' deliveries will quickly be impacted and in a bad way.
 
1,482
408
Here at Lam we have a fairly extensive supply chain in China. The first thing we did was push out all deliveries 2 weeks in order to re-run the shortage reports to assess impact. I don't know what the results of that were, but if people start getting sick from receiving parts from China it'll be a big, big deal economically. We've also suspended all international travel.

I'm just wondering if there's going to be a "big scare" that jolts the markets significantly.
 

TymeSlayer

Tramps like us, Baby we were born to run...
3,787
2,740
Exp. Type
HPDE
Exp. Level
3-5 Years
Brighton, Colorado

Ludachris

Chris
Staff member
Moderator
1,658
1,962
Exp. Type
HPDE
Exp. Level
5-10 Years
Newcastle, CA
Not dead. Conspiracies abound. Like the folks not drinking Corona beer to prevent catching the virus.
Although I wouldn't mind a pull-back so I can weaken my cash position.

Well that's good news. It must be extremely difficult to get any news confirmed coming from China at the moment. Not surprised to see the early reporting being wrong.
 

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