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DOW 23,000+ today?

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408
Forgot to mention I have a bit of LRCX too from back in '16...all purchased under $100. Noticed I had some when doing some of the end of year loss harvesting. Not enough for me to hedge individually, but was noticeable when sorted by % gainers (unrealized). Was nice to see $300 hit yesterday.

Nice! We're all quite bullish on LRCX here as you can imagine. Our CEO gives a quarterly speech and in the latest one he talked about defending our market share from the likes of AMAT. He said in 2019 we successfully defended every single application and Production Tool of Record. He said that was the first time he's ever seen that. It bodes well for our market share going forward. In related news, AMAT reassigned the top guy in Etch...
 
How about a DOW 40,000 thread when we close over 30,000? That’s only a 33% increase to hit it. Should be easy in the current market environment. ;)
 

Grant 302

basic and well known psychic
Anyone can start a new thread at any tyme!!

But I've said before that I like the reminder of where the markets were not long ago.

It's also why I wouldn't sticky this or a thread like it. If it becomes totally irrelevant to me, it'll already die it's own death and in its own tyme.

30k might be that number for me too...but we'll see!

----

Another peak made today at 29,054.16
Short lived, but still a green day.
 

Grant 302

basic and well known psychic
Nice to see some other participants! Even nicer to see some other predictions...

I’m still thinking near term for 29,700 and guessing before Q1 is done.
 

boardkat

CAMtard
131
179
Exp. Type
W2W Racing
Exp. Level
10-20 Years
Lake Oswego, OR
My prediction is purely selfish - had to sell some stock into this never ending bull market to pay for the unexpected home reno due to flooding and another stupid failed built coyote engine, so a dip will make me feel better about cashing out!
 

Grant 302

basic and well known psychic
Nothing wrong with predicting what you’re hoping for...or ‘talking your book’!

I always enjoy the buying opportunities...and the drops when I’m hedged for it!
 

Mad Hatter

Gotta go Faster
5,237
4,227
Santiago, Chile
Oh well, might as well throw my dime in. Very worried about too much cheap credit, debt rates are getting close to 2008 (or over). I see lots of potential of going to 25,000 or lower this year. That we are so addicted to cheap credit is what keeps me worried at night.
 

Grant 302

basic and well known psychic
I dunno. Cheap credit isn't the same as easy credit...which is arguably the main difference.

My view is that we still need a phase of massive inflation and devaluing of the USD followed by major foreign currencies. Increases in the broader markets are part of my macro inflation model.
 

Mad Hatter

Gotta go Faster
5,237
4,227
Santiago, Chile
As a gold bug am waiting for the inevitable inflation phase... But have been waiting along time!! Negative interest rates in Europe while real world inflation is hovering around 10% seem untenable.
 
Oh well, might as well throw my dime in. Very worried about too much cheap credit, debt rates are getting close to 2008 (or over). I see lots of potential of going to 25,000 or lower this year. That we are so addicted to cheap credit is what keeps me worried at night.
While a pull back is possible I don't see one that large. We are nowhere near the conditions that we had leading into the financial crisis. I see very little headwind for 2020 other than a possible geopolitical event this year. An event in South America is possible.
 

Grant 302

basic and well known psychic
Refining my target to 29,726.

Probably just crazy talk to move to such detail, but we’ll see.

——

Yeah, I don’t see a pullback that large...yet. Those levels have been well tested and as I’ve called before, a breakout is, in fact, in progress. If I’m wrong about the need to consolidate after hitting the above target, the it might blow through 30k and consolidate somewhere higher, maybe in the 32k range. I haven’t worked on the specific target for that scenario yet.

As a gold bug am waiting for the inevitable inflation phase... But have been waiting along time!! Negative interest rates in Europe while real world inflation is hovering around 10% seem untenable.

I’m not sure that gold ‘needs’ to participate in the same manner. It’s one currency hedge that I view as oft overpriced. And that skews it’s valuation quite heavily compared to gold bulls. Just my minority opinion on that.
 

Mad Hatter

Gotta go Faster
5,237
4,227
Santiago, Chile
Well, we all tend to be wrong most of the time!! So best of luck to all to of us, hope the market stays positive for a long time to come.

What does worry me is the fundemental changes to how our economies have been working for centuries now.

I Live in what used to be a Catholic country with an average of three childern per women. Now Chile is at 1.7 and falling fast... Europe and developed Asia is flirting with 1.4 rug rats per women. How are we going to grow if we will be selling less things??? Nice fix for global warming, but if people like having cats and dogs more then kids... Who will Ford sell cars too? ( I Know, us!! Becuase we will be racing into our 90's)
 

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