The Mustang Forum for Track & Racing Enthusiasts

Taking your Mustang to an open track/HPDE event for the first time? Do you race competitively? This forum is for you! Log in to remove most ads.

  • Welcome to the Ford Mustang forum built for owners of the Mustang GT350, BOSS 302, GT500, and all other S550, S197, SN95, Fox Body and older Mustangs set up for open track days, road racing, and/or autocross. Join our forum, interact with others, share your build, and help us strengthen this community!

DOW 23,000+ today?

This site may earn a commission from merchant affiliate links, including eBay, Amazon, and others.

Grant 302

basic and well known psychic
Leverage really paying off today. Nice breach of 27k. 27,295 +1,014 as I type.

In the elevated VIX environment, it takes much bigger moves for the intended/desired level of leverage to kick-in. And as the VIX contracts some of the ‘juice’ evaporates. At least the costs to hedge going forward are getting back towards normal moving forward.

...

I’ve initiated coverage on several positions since the March bounce with nominal ‘tracking’ positions. A couple that made it to the ‘intent to buy’ list were luckily added yesterday.

...

Good time to have the bullish bias.
 
1,482
408
Agreed. I'm quite happy I made significant investments off the sidelines and into the frying pan in March and April. My 401k is up over 35% since April 1.

As for LRCX, I'm letting it run, baby run!
 
@Fat Boss I’m with you on that. I thought the Financial Crisis was one of the best investing opportunities of my lifetime and never expected to see another opportunity that good again. The Virus Crisis has been better and condensed into three months. I think the long term prospects of the tech sector over the next ten years will rival the past ten years.
 

1995CobraR

Three time Champion
55
48
Exp. Type
W2W Racing
Exp. Level
20+ Years
Sandy Springs, GA
...I think the long term prospects of the tech sector over the next ten years will rival the past ten years.

I am not so sure about that? I think the FANG stocks are priced for perfection of growing earnings.

It reminds me of the 2000 Dot.com bubble with it's much too optimistic earnings.
The crash that followed saw the Nasdaq index, which had risen five-fold between 1995 and 2000, tumble from a peak of 5,048.62 on March 10, 2000, to 1,139.90 on Oct 4, 2002, a 76.81% fall. By the end of 2001, most dotcom stocks had gone bust.

If earnings disappoint, most investors can will panic which will drop the value of the stock, any mutual fund, and index fund.

So, I say slow down and study the financial statements. The stock market may value a high P/E stock today, but one earnings miss will send it down quickly.

I am neutral here. I say still income average into stocks, but the recent +35% increase is optimistic when trading stocks..
 

Grant 302

basic and well known psychic
I am not so sure about that? I think the FANG stocks are priced for perfection of growing earnings.

It reminds me of the 2000 Dot.com bubble with it's much too optimistic earnings.
Yes, except it’s nothing like that. Maybe with the exception of FB.

The mistakes I made then were also not the norm. I sold way too early. And generally underestimated the broader impacts to some of the mutual funds that I did hang on to.

But I don’t know of any individual investors that fared better during that period.

By pulling out of most individual equities early, I missed out on a fair amount of upside gains. Mistake one.

I ‘only’ reduced my exposure to stocks by about 1/3. Some of the proceeds did go to bond funds, but mostly went to cash/money market. Perhaps a harsh self assessment, but mistake number two.

Aside from holding FCNT, I made almost no money on the way down. Mistake number three.

Anyhow, the writing in the wall was clear to me about the issue with valuation...and the forming bubble that needed to burst.

Today is nothing like that.

If earnings disappoint, most investors can will panic which will drop the value of the stock, any mutual fund, and index fund.

Broad statements like this won’t apply to everything. Simply avoid the stocks and sectors that you think will have lasting impacts. Even then, not everyone panics.

So, I say slow down and study the financial statements. The stock market may value a high P/E stock today, but one earnings miss will send it down quickly.

I agree from the single stock perspective. I believe there are lots of sectors to avoid at this time.

I am neutral here. I say still income average into stocks, but the recent +35% increase is optimistic when trading stocks..

I see this mostly the opposite way. The ~30% market drop was overly pessimistic. Sure, some susceptible stocks and sectors should have taken a hit...others shouldn’t even have flinched. As in all the businesses that make more money in this environment.

And probably not the last time I’ll say it...but I don’t believe in the practice of ‘dollar cost averaging’. Always contribute to cash or bonds. Buy with conviction when what you want is ‘on sale’.

...

It’s always interesting times when there’s more participation in here.

...

One thing I want to point out is how strong the buying was at the start of this month.
 
1,482
408
As I recall the Dot Bomb issues mostly revolved around a bunch of pie in the sky estimates of the potential of the internet to change the way people spent money, behaved, etc- while these companies had zero or negative earnings. Today's companies almost all have earnings, and the ones that don't have pretty significant revenue growth they're fueling.
 

Grant 302

basic and well known psychic
It was more like people playing the Lottery...with their disposable income and/or 401k funds. Huge financial house of cards.

...

Still solid movement to kickoff the week. Closing near the high of the day.
 
1,482
408
It was more like people playing the Lottery...with their disposable income and/or 401k funds. Huge financial house of cards.

...

Still solid movement to kickoff the week. Closing near the high of the day.

Now that you mention it I now recall borrowing $2k on a credit card, turning it into $16k inside of six months, then selling everything after concluding it was too easy to make money that way and it wasn't going to last.
 

Grant 302

basic and well known psychic
Now that you mention it I now recall borrowing $2k on a credit card, turning it into $16k inside of six months, then selling everything after concluding it was too easy to make money that way and it wasn't going to last.
Yeah, that’s like some of the stories I heard about. Also how I knew it wouldn’t end well. Lots of stories floated around while there was money being made. Didn’t hear so much about them after the bubble burst. And it was clear people went into debt for it...via credit cards and margin accounts.

I bought my first new car before the crash. The 2000 Mustang GT was enough debt for me to carry.

...

Structure of the price action make me think previous highs might be tested sooner than I was thinking. Some of the long term call side bets are actually back in play. Crazy.
 

Grant 302

basic and well known psychic
Resistance becomes support. Now to see if this level holds. Bounced off a low of 25,183 so far. Not quite a perfect ‘double’ as some technical analysis might ‘prefer’, but functionally the same to me.

FWIW, the warning sign on Monday was the bump up with volatility expansion.
 
1,482
408
I took the opportunity yesterday to buy a couple new to me stocks on the weakness.

DFS Discover Financial Services @ $49.90 == Closed today at 52.99

DIN Dine Brands Global, Inc @ $45.62 == Closed today at $49.28

Back into CLR Continental Resources, Inc @ $15.75 == Closed today at $16.61

Aaaand the one that got away was RECAF. I thought about buying back in yesterday since it had taken a beating. It was up over 22% today.
 

Grant 302

basic and well known psychic
I like DFS.
CLR ‘scares’ me a bit, but I see how it can be used for swing trading.

...

Cashing short term puts for short terms calls played nicely for the close of the week. Funded more straddle/strangle spreads for next week. Hoping for some craziness and the opportunity to make money on both sides.
 

1995CobraR

Three time Champion
55
48
Exp. Type
W2W Racing
Exp. Level
20+ Years
Sandy Springs, GA

Grant 302

basic and well known psychic
Meh. I say buy the fear. Super easy to say with hedges in place. Volatility is my friend.

That said, I don’t expect a test of the March lows. But I will make more than expected if it does. Lots more.
 

Grant 302

basic and well known psychic
Cashing short term puts for short terms calls played nicely for the close of the week. Funded more straddle/strangle spreads for next week. Hoping for some craziness and the opportunity to make money on both sides.

I’m not usually looking to make money in the first 5 minutes of trading on a Monday, but worked for me.

Today’s bounce looks pretty bullish and pushed the new put positions further down than the new call side positions. Gonna cash and roll some of that up before today’s close.
 
1,482
408
I took the opportunity yesterday to buy a couple new to me stocks on the weakness.

DFS Discover Financial Services @ $49.90 == Closed today at 52.99

DIN Dine Brands Global, Inc @ $45.62 == Closed today at $49.28

Back into CLR Continental Resources, Inc @ $15.75 == Closed today at $16.61

I got gun shy and sold these positions. DFS at $56, DIN at $50, and CLR @ $18. That was quick.

I've also decided that I've made enough money in the past few months to allow me to lower my risk and go to cash ahead of the "2nd wave" of the virus and the fall election. I'm going to TRY and stay on the sidelines until after the election. My 401k is now back in a stable value fund. Boring...
 
We think a lot and I sold some today. I was fully invested in the stock market with little cash so decided I wanted more cash. I’m also concerned about a second wave this Fall, the election, and the social unrest. From my perspective there’s more downside risk at the moment than upside. I was not planning on generating cash until the end of summer but moved that up by two months.
 

TMO Supporting Vendors

Top