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Grant 302

basic and well known psychic
Just ignore anything I have to say about LRCX. Now up $36 today @ $562 at time of press...

šŸ˜†

Strength of the move is impressive! Only wishing I dug into some speculative option plays on it! Enjoy the ride! šŸ˜Š

690ACF27-453D-44ED-9CDF-2076D61EAE12.jpeg
...

This weekend I meet with some fellow individual investors. Typically, in January we go over the ā€˜what worked and what didnā€™tā€™ for the past year to go over lessons learned. Everyone who actively trades should do the same. Going through the dates and trade history, I think I did about as well as could possibly be predicted given my risk tolerance levels. Also reviewed my notes on the monthly meeting predictions for market direction and targets. Gonna be fun.

...

As for broad cash management...with the new tax year in play, I cashed some of the winners that I didnā€™t want to pile on top of 2020 gains/taxes. Mostly to generate the 2021 operating budget. Hedges are largely set only to protect if it goes below 30k.
 
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LRCX is getting beat up pretty good ahead of earnings, currently down $24 at $528. Earnings will be announced after the close. We'll meet or beat the earnings, it's just a question of how rosy the outlook is. I suspect it's going to be quite rosy, but I've only seen the revenue expectations for the division I work in.

Grant- what's you take on the reddit thread run up of GME, AMC, NOK, etc? I haven't seen massive plays like this since 1997/98 when the old Briefing.com thread "in Play" or something like that had traders trading to trade, which absolutely no regards to fundamentals. I mean, we all KNOW Game Stop is going the way of Blockbuster Video, yet the stock is MURDERING the shorts on a daily basis.

GME is at $314 with a high of $380 today, and was $20 a month ago.
 
Im in GME/AMC and you best believe its a lottery ticket stock.

this is literally 15million people pissed at all the short sellers But im loving my 300-400% gains, i know at any second it can all be $0.
Do not take anything thats happening with them as logic lol
 

Grant 302

basic and well known psychic
LRCX is getting beat up pretty good ahead of earnings, currently down $24 at $528. Earnings will be announced after the close. We'll meet or beat the earnings, it's just a question of how rosy the outlook is. I suspect it's going to be quite rosy, but I've only seen the revenue expectations for the division I work in.
I suspect the drop is largely from profit taking and risk-off moves. Mostly in line with broader market action. I still donā€™t see it as a change in the overall market unless earnings disappoint. Thatā€™s for both LRCX and in general.


Grant- what's you take on the reddit thread run up of GME, AMC, NOK, etc? I haven't seen massive plays like this since 1997/98 when the old Briefing.com thread "in Play" or something like that had traders trading to trade, which absolutely no regards to fundamentals. I mean, we all KNOW Game Stop is going the way of Blockbuster Video, yet the stock is MURDERING the shorts on a daily basis.

GME is at $314 with a high of $380 today, and was $20 a month ago.

As with anything like this...someone is going to end up being the ā€˜bag holderā€™. All the moves up appear unsustainable. I suspect anything r/ related to be an effort to pump-n-dump. Instead of illegal ā€˜boiler roomsā€™ pushing OTC stinky pinkys...theyā€™ve evolved into something new. Maybe even legal. But still stuff I wouldnā€™t touch in general.
 
As usual I agree with Grant on both subjects. Iā€™d sure like to short 10,000 shares of GME today.
 

TymeSlayer

Tramps like us, Baby we were born to run...
3,787
2,740
Exp. Type
HPDE
Exp. Level
3-5 Years
Brighton, Colorado
Excerpt from CNBC
"The marketā€™s relentless rally has not been kind to short sellers for many years. For all the attention that is put on superstar short sellers, most of these managers lose money. Equity shorts lost $243 billion in 2020, a return of negative 26%, according to S3 Partners."

Glad it ain't my money!
 

Grant 302

basic and well known psychic
Glad it ain't my money!

Yeah, thatā€™s for sure. Iā€™ve felt on the right side of things keeping my bull hat on. And havenā€™t made anything on put protection for quite a while. Naked shorts get what they deserve.

As usual I agree with Grant on both subjects. Iā€™d sure like to short 10,000 shares of GME today.

Lol. Iā€™m wondering how easy it would be to borrow right now. Some of the bigger shorts gotta be doubling down. Sucking up whatā€™s available.
 
Excerpt from CNBC
"The marketā€™s relentless rally has not been kind to short sellers for many years. For all the attention that is put on superstar short sellers, most of these managers lose money. Equity shorts lost $243 billion in 2020, a return of negative 26%, according to S3 Partners."

Glad it ain't my money!

cNBC, oh poor billionaire hedgefund managers who are vultures with shorting stocks. If these managers lost money they wouldnt be in business. This is just cnbc playing victim.

also on cnbc today a former sec lawyer saying ā€œonly hedge funds should be allowed to manipulate stocks, not retail investorsā€™ā€™ and ā€œif a stock price isnt fair, then the sec should investigateā€. Sounds like communism to me
 

Grant 302

basic and well known psychic
I read that finding shares to borrow and sell are tough today. I retract my previous comment about short selling 10,000 shares. More like 1,000. :)

Funny. Reminds me about learning the lesson of what it means when your broker wants to borrow your shares: Sell ASAP! šŸ˜
 

Grant 302

basic and well known psychic
...aaaand what did I say about GME? Let the bag-holding begin! Probably gonna be a while before it crosses $17 again, lots of people are gonna want to take their turn at holding the bag.

Cramer says buy F and LRCX:

Spent most of yesterday and late Friday tightening the straddle/strangle. All funded by the brief drop under 30k.
 
Risk profile of being a short-seller has negatively changed: Kyle Bass

Good 5 min vid on why short selling is a good thing and needed.
 

TymeSlayer

Tramps like us, Baby we were born to run...
3,787
2,740
Exp. Type
HPDE
Exp. Level
3-5 Years
Brighton, Colorado
I'm into ford around the $9 mark. I'm tempted to sell because when I bought it wasn't for the long term. I'm worried the hype will die down and move below $10 soon. What do you fellas think?
 

Grant 302

basic and well known psychic
I'm into ford around the $9 mark. I'm tempted to sell because when I bought it wasn't for the long term. I'm worried the hype will die down and move below $10 soon. What do you fellas think?
What hype?

Iā€™m not holding any, but I donā€™t think Iā€™d be concerned about a move under $10. I donā€™t think itā€™s going to happen, and I donā€™t see a problem if it does.

But since you didnā€™t buy it for long term, Iā€™d think youā€™d know best what you want to do.

Broadly speaking, I donā€™t think this is the time to take profits or go to cash or make major rotations away from risk or growth sectors.

Inflation is coming. If I cared about fishing for likes, I wouldā€™ve posted a meme. šŸ™ƒ
 

TymeSlayer

Tramps like us, Baby we were born to run...
3,787
2,740
Exp. Type
HPDE
Exp. Level
3-5 Years
Brighton, Colorado
I'm already sitting on bunch of cash but F was one I held onto. The EV news seems to help up the price and I can't help think the $9 crowd will be looking to cash in. That hype, albeit modest is what I meant. I still see the market retreating and I'm in a comfortable position for that but with Ford cutting production for the highly profitable F-150 line due to chip shortages, I can help but think that'll make the price fall. I sold half of my position today but held on to the other half.
 

Grant 302

basic and well known psychic
Always a good thing when youā€™ve made money. šŸ‘

I still see the market retreating

I donā€™t. At least not any more than Iā€™d expect from moves that fall under ā€˜consolidationā€™.

I wouldnā€™t fight the Fed...or inflation or raising of the minimum wage. I donā€™t mean I think thatā€™s a good idea, but itā€™s probably gonna happen. And combining those will eventually lead to higher prices and bigger profits albeit in inflated dollars. I want my dollars inflated. šŸ˜‰

DOW 37,000 is coming too. The dip last March already provides solid support for it to happen.
 

ChrisM

Mostly harmless.
1,180
1,419
Exp. Type
HPDE
Exp. Level
3-5 Years
South Carolina
I want my dollars inflated. šŸ˜‰

Not arguing, why? I'm trying to wrap my head around what's been going on and looking for alternative income (I don't think that's the right way to put it) or a way to "stabilize" personal finances against the coming inflation and am kind of at a loss, so I'm genuinely curious about this.
 

Grant 302

basic and well known psychic
Not arguing, why? I'm trying to wrap my head around what's been going on and looking for alternative income (I don't think that's the right way to put it) or a way to "stabilize" personal finances against the coming inflation and am kind of at a loss, so I'm genuinely curious about this.

One way to look at the ā€˜whyā€™... is that there is a cost of doing nothing with your money. Cash essentially devalues at the inverse rate of inflation. I meant by that comment that I want or need my money to grow and outpace inflation.

Best things you can do are to put that money to work in some way. Buy stocks, mutual funds, a house, REITs, start a business, capitalize an existing one (borrow cheap money and expand).. Basically anything to ā€˜avoidā€™ your cash from becoming worth less in the future than it is today.

So I donā€™t think of it as a ā€˜stabilizingā€™ sort of move needed. More like actively ā€˜fightingā€™ inflation.

Hope that makes sense...and addresses your questions correctly. Feels like Iā€™m just rambling.
 

ChrisM

Mostly harmless.
1,180
1,419
Exp. Type
HPDE
Exp. Level
3-5 Years
South Carolina
No it makes sense and for the most part I think I'm pretty well diversified, but there's not a lot of people who say "I want inflation." I guess I was thinking in terms of hyperinflation rather than the regularly occuring kind. Thanks for the insight!
 

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