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(F)ord stockholders/investors

What's your call?


  • Total voters
    44

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Jabooh1 said:
I would watch China overnight and Dow futures. China suspended the 7% loss "stop trading" so it could be a roller coaster tomorrow.
China is up right now.
 
519
16
F hit a low of 11.48 today. The P/E is under $10 and dividend yield is now almost 5%! BTW, F was over $17 when this thread was started.

Where is a crystal ball when you need one? Seems doubtful Ford would cut the dividend. 5% is pretty awesome dividend return, and you have to believe the stock will eventually pop back since US sales still seem pretty strong. But who knows? We could be nosediving into another 2008, just for different reasons.
 
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VoodooBOSS said:
While we could be headed into a global recession it should be mild and nothing like the 2008 financial crisis.

I trust nothing and no one when it comes to the world economies. You could have done a survey of every oil industry analyst on earth 12 months ago and not a single one would have predicted oil trading for $26 a barrel today. 20 months ago oil was over $110 a barrel. There is some serious economic war going on right now. The Saudis are out for blood, and it is a bloodbath in the oil industry. The repercussions will be massive both in the US and in other countries. Russia, Venezuela, Canada, Nigeria - all are in a world of hurt right now, and in another year it could be extremely serious.

Read this article, published in December of 2014 when oil was still $75 a barrel, predicting the dire consequences if oil prices remained that "low".

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/dec/03/oil-collapse-leads-world-economy-trouble


Imagine this nightmare scenario: Iran starts selling an extra 500,000 to 1 Million barrels a day, OPEC continues to produce. Oil drops another $10 a barrel. World oil exploration grinds to a halt, multinationals start declaring bankruptcy. Eventually what happens? OPEC's share of oil production goes up, because they are the only ones still doing any oil well development. The average lifespan of all those shale wells we drilled in the last five years is about five years. After five years of global recession and nearly zero new well development outside of OPEC, where would we be? Our gonads would be right back in the hands of OPEC. This is their goal, and they have the ability to make it happen. Then, in five years when the oil industry is essentially crippled outside of the OPEC sovereigns, they dramatically cut production, or even declare an embargo.

Bam. We are so screwed.
 
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Ford announced layoffs in Europe today and they are cutting "some models" in Europe although I couldn't find a list of them.

The stock has gone as low as 11.02.

The question is, will we look at this post five years from now and kick ourselves for not jumping in, or will we be relieved that we didn't jump in?

The stock market down again, DJI is below 16,000. I have a lot of friends close to retirement age who are seriously P.O.ed by this. They pumped a bunch of 401K money into the market in 2014 when things were great, now they are not looking so hot. You really can't look at the DJI or other indices and get a good feel for how things are going in stock based mutual funds, because some of them have been whipsawed by the volatility and are seriously trailing the indexes.

A good reminder to not be too far into the market if you think you'll be retiring in the next couple of years.

My personal opinion (but only a small amount of my money) says that barring a terrible disaster like a major oil company going under, oil stock ETFs would be a great place to put your money if you have five years or more to park it, IF you can get in near the bottom. Some individual oil stocks are paying 7.5% dividends now, but that is a real dice roll. Exxon and BP have said they will borrow money this year to maintain the dividend, but if oil doesn't pop back to $50 by the end of the year, they might have to cut them, and the stocks will take a huge hit. Long term, it seems improbable that the Saudis and OPEC will continue cutting everyone's throats, but who knows?
 
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Grant 302 said:
Time to get back into Ford? Goldman just upgraded F to buy...and downgraded GM.

Never thought *that* would happen. ::)

The above post was from June 24,2015, eight months ago, and F was at $15.

I wonder how big the bonuses were for the Goldman Sachs analysts upgrading F to a buy at $15 eight months ago, when the stock is now scraping $11.
 
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VoodooBOSS said:
If we slip into a global recession the markets will not be kind to auto stocks.

Ford - Single digit P/E, 5% dividend, record industry sales, strong profits - and trading 30+% below its 52 week high.

It makes you wonder.
 
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F closed at 12.08 today.

Dividend is almost 5% and seems safe. Even with China weakness and Brexit, you have to believe in the long run F is a good deal.
 

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