Floods, Fires, Fear of Covid!!

[JAJ]

well maybe someone was right after all.....

Does This Study Shift the Covid-19 Narrative About When the Virus Was in the US? (townhall.com)

So, an update on this. I track the scientific publications on Covid 19 pretty carefully, and tonight I actually read the report referenced in the news item above. It's newly listed on a "science library" web page from the US CDC, and it's been curated for publication, although it's not a "CDC publication". They're providing it as a convenience.

In the study, the Red Cross provided blood samples from donors dated from December 13, 2019 to January 17th 2020 for antibody testing. Sure enough, a number of these samples had antibodies - disease prevention cells - that reacted to the Covid 19 virus. The thing is, the article itself says that they don't know if the antibodies are from Covid 19 or from some other virus with a similar structure (flu, colds, whatever). So while it's interesting, it's not a convincing smoking gun. And then, as if it's not shaky enough already, it gets worse. In another article on the same curated list tonight, a similar study looking at blood samples from 2011 to 2018 also found antibodies that reacted to the Covid 19 virus. It's pretty safe to say that Covid 19 wasn't around in 2011 or 2018, so those antibodies are definitely from something else. It's entirely possible that the same non-Covid antibodies were detected in the 2019-2020 samples. At this point, the science is good enough to say that reactive antibodies are present, but not good enough to say what caused them.

So, the real science says that the data is ambiguous. The sad and annoying thing is that the author of the news item says "and it shows a presence of the coronavirus in samples dated from December 2019". Talk about double-talk. It shows the presence of a coronavirus (could be the flu from a few years back) but there's no certainty at all that it's the SARS-Cov-2 virus that causes Covid 19. Welcome to the click-bait media "let's get people riled up" strategy.

Of course the interesting question is whether these pre-existing antibodies provide any protection from the Covid virus. The authors of both studies say that there's no solid evidence one way or the other, and if you look more broadly, there are studies on prior viruses and inoculations that say that none of the earlier infections or shots will protect you from Covid. Don't get your hopes up.

Anyway, welcome to the highly uncertain science of a novel virus that the world has never seen before - things that you think you know today get upended every week by new data.

 

[67GTA]

It's pretty safe to say that Covid 19 wasn't around in 2011 or 2018, so those antibodies are definitely from something else. It's entirely possible that the same non-Covid antibodies were detected in the 2019-2020 samples. At this point, the science is good enough to say that reactive antibodies are present, but not good enough to say what caused them.

And perhaps that’s why a large percentage of people that are exposed don’t contract this virus. It doesn’t really matter - what drives fear is the unexplained reasons why the very smallest of percentages are impacted so gravely. It’s like Russian roulette. I had it, with nothing more than sinus infection like symptoms and consider myself very fortunate. Why my wife and kids didn’t contract the virus when I know they were directly exposed is part of the mystery. The fear of the unknown provides way to much opportunity for alternative interests to advance their agendas under the cloak of that fear.

One other thought, are DNA samples being collected and logged as part of the state and county funded “free” testing?

 

[Ludachris]

Welcome to the click-bait media "let's get people riled up" strategy.

Yup, I'm sure this author's statement will fuel even more theories and speculation.

Thanks for sharing JAJ.

 

[302BOB]

Ct's latest percent testing is 8.6 % positive..highest since testing begin in March...the summer low was below 1 %...Santa Claus may stay home this year................Put extra chocolate chips in those cookies this yr, just in case..............

 

[blacksheep-1]

JAJ, that's pretty interesting, I just wish we could get some legit information, back when HIV was new, myself and my entire crew were exposed to it at a traffic accident. An individual tested positive for it, flung himself in front of a vehicle going 45 mph. The guy didn't die right away, we worked the patient as best we could, it was a mess, and we ended up covered in blood, when the guy arrived at the emergency room, the nurse found a note where the guy was tested positive and called the fire station. We were evaluated, blood drawn and we went through 2 years of testing to insure we didn't have it. Now days, when an exposure is discovered, the individual goes straight to the ER, and gets a massive bolus of antibiotics, so much so that the person gets very sick, ends up out of work for at least a week, loses hair, vomiting and diarrhea for days and loses about 30 pounds. The end result is that since that protocol was established we have had no one exposed to HIV that came up positive, even 2 years later. in the early days it was gee... hope it works out for you. needless to say, the cost on the family was horrendous for the 2 years waiting for a clean bill of health.
Remarkably, before the news was designed for ratings, we actually had factual information coming from them (1985ish).
So the question still goes back to.. apparently COVID19 is a mutation of a prior virus, possibly SARS or is that just a conduit for COVID? and really, how long ha sit been here? and what do we really know about it's transmission?
Is herd immunity really a thing, or do we really want to subject ourselves to a vaccine that is designed to alter our DNA (which I think I'll pass for now.. thanks)
It seems we're no better off then we were in September.. or was it December?.. March?
In the meantime I was in something like 8 states in a 24 day span around September, some had insanely draconian rules (California) some had almost none, (Georgia). So I wear a mask where it's required, ditch it for my own health whenever possible, and disinfect my hands and things I touch.. a lot, and quit worrying about it.
to that end I shut off my news feeds on the computer and phone (except for Australia which actually carries news on American politics) and go about my life.

 

[JAJ]

And perhaps that’s why a large percentage of people that are exposed don’t contract this virus. It doesn’t really matter - what drives fear is the unexplained reasons why the very smallest of percentages are impacted so gravely. It’s like Russian roulette.

This is one of the biggest mysteries of the whole pandemic - why do some people get super sick and why do others have no symptoms or mild symptoms? If I think back, with all my digging through research reports, I've probably held four different explanations for this situation as "the best we have so far" but none of them have really been convincing. At this point, the best I've been able to get to is "we really have no idea". What is worth keeping in mind, although again it's just "the best thing for today, stand by for changes" is that there are four fundamentally different responses by humans when they encounter the virus. First one, best one is "it doesn't get in the door" - your immune system stops it before it gets a chance to infect you. The second is "begone, foul virus" where you get infected, but in the five or so days between infection and becoming symptomatic, you kill off the virus and you never know it was ever there. The third one is that you get the virus, have mild symptoms and then it's over. The last one is the one that most of the research and media coverage has been aimed at - sufficient symptoms to warrant isolation or hospitalization, some severe enough to bring death. The overriding issue on top of the last two is "long Covid" where symptoms continue after the virus is gone. In the community where I live, this apparently happens in about 1/3 of symptomatic cases, so it's not something to be ignored.

While research has turned its attention to the mechanics of the first two - no symptoms - there haven't been any solid breakthroughs yet. On the second two, there is a theory that's gaining ground - far from being considered reliable - that what separates severe symptoms from mild symptoms is the way the virus attacks your gut. There's lots of data that shows that testing sewage is a good way to assess the disease level in a community, so obviously the virus goes through your gut. But for some people, it produces a similar reaction to Irritable Bowel Syndrome, Crohn's disease and Celiac disease. Your gut starts to leak bacteria and enzymes into your bloodstream and they then join in the attack on your body. Your immune system is fighting a respiratory disease on the air-side of your lungs and a bacterial attack on all of your organs - including your brain - from your blood at the same time. Now again, this is all new science and it could be overturned next week, but it's the best explanation I've seen so far. One thing it does address is "long Covid" where the symptoms are similar to those of long-term gut disorders. And some of those are permanent, so even if you're not afraid of dying from Covid 19, the risk of long term health problems is very real.

One other thought, are DNA samples being collected and logged as part of the state and county funded “free” testing?

I'm terrifically tempted to joke about this, but given how sensitive this is as a topic these days, I'll have to leave aside any humor - I don't know about your state or country for sure, but in most of the western world, it's illegal. I believe there are restrictions on this in the USA, but I'm not an expert on US law.

Remarkably, before the news was designed for ratings, we actually had factual information coming from them (1985ish).

I know - wasn't it great! Back then, the news media saw its role as a "spin remover". Not so much any more.

So the question still goes back to.. apparently COVID19 is a mutation of a prior virus, possibly SARS or is that just a conduit for COVID? and really, how long ha sit been here? and what do we really know about it's transmission?

Yes, the SARS-CoV-2 virus is a new, previously unseen variation of a type of virus that's been circulating in human society for decades. It's symptoms are the disease we know as Covid 19. The existing "endemic coronaviruses" circulate on a cycle of about every 8 years, which is roughly how long the body's immunity takes to wear off after the last infection. They produce flu-like symptoms and most people think they're just a bad cold. As far as transmission is concerned, SARS-CoV-2 is about as infectious as measles, which is one of the most infectious diseases known to man. Give it an inch and it'll take a continent.

Is herd immunity really a thing, or do we really want to subject ourselves to a vaccine that is designed to alter our DNA (which I think I'll pass for now.. thanks)

For most diseases, herd immunity is real. The basic form relies on becoming immune after surviving the infection. If enough people in a community have had the infection, or have been vaccinated, the number of people left to pass the disease around is too small for it to prosper and spread. Once the disease is suppressed, it has a hard time coming back. But, as the anti-vax communities have proven with measles, if enough people are susceptible, then those little buggers will rise again and start taking names and kicking ass.

It seems we're no better off then we were in September.. or was it December?.. March?

Worse, actually. For reasons that escape me, the deniers and anti-maskers are bound and determined to make the disease as severe as possible and make it last as long as possible. It's a very strange phenomenon.

In the meantime I was in something like 8 states in a 24 day span around September, some had insanely draconian rules (California) some had almost none, (Georgia). So I wear a mask where it's required, ditch it for my own health whenever possible, and disinfect my hands and things I touch.. a lot, and quit worrying about it.

That's what I've been doing where I live - follow the guidelines and hope for the best.

to that end I shut off my news feeds on the computer and phone (except for Australia which actually carries news on American politics) and go about my life.

Very wise!

 

[Scootsmcgreggor]

a vaccine that is designed to alter our DNA (which I think I'll pass for now.. thanks)

There are a number of unfounded reports of DNA editing going around social media, which bears addressing as well. the mRNA codes for the production of a piece of one protein from covid. The mRNA never enters the nucleus of the cell, so cannot change DNA and therefore will not be coded for in any cell replication.

Additional information here:

Understanding and Explaining mRNA COVID-19 Vaccines | CDC

The COVID-19 mRNA vaccine is safe and effective. Unlike other vaccines, the mRNA vaccine does not contain a live virus and has been rigorously tested for safety.

www.cdc.gov

On a separate note, I work in the food industry and have done a lot of work in food safety. Every ingredient for every food you've pretty much ever eaten (save for raw milk perhaps, that's another topic) has gone through a thorough hazard analysis. This analysis first teases out any risk in the production of a given ingredient or finished good. It then analyzes the probability of that risk, and the severity of the risk. Essentially, if you cannot determine the severity of the risk, you cannot proceed as you cannot feed people food for which you haven't analyzed, and mitigated the risks. If you cannot calculate the risk/hazard you are basically gambling. You can't gamble with the health of your customers. This is the same analysis that informs pregnant women for example not to eat uncured meats, raw milk cheese, etc.

What I find interesting is that this same analysis is used to recommend people to take appropriate precautions to avoid infection, but a large portion of the population instead seems perfectly happy to gamble with their health. Sure we do have an idea that the probability is low(ish depending on data and your reference point) that you will have long term persistent health problems, but because the virus is novel and we're so early on with it, we do not yet know the total long term risk. I don't walk around in fear of getting covid, though I respect it and keep in mind that while the probability is low that I'm that guy with long term serious health implications, someone is going to be that statistic. Do I want to take unnecessary risk of that outcome? Our wives probably abided by the recommendations for what to avoid eating when they were pregnant (even though the probability that they would contract listeria from salami was also extremely low), so should we not also take the same precautions personally now?

 

[blacksheep-1]

Have a happy day...

 

[Grant 302]

That’s a bit f****d up to post in this thread on the day when Covid-19 death toll passed 300,000 in the US. But good for you, I guess.

 

[TMSBOSS]

There was a time when “Live Free or Die” meant something to most. Today, “what now mommy” seems to be more common. YMMV.

 

[Scootsmcgreggor]

That’s a bit f****d up to post in this thread on the day when Covid-19 death toll passed 300,000 in the US. But good for you, I guess.

Seriously.

There was a time when “Live Free or Die” meant something to most. Today, “what now mommy” seems to be more common. YMMV.

There was also a time when there was a sense of social responsibility and the value of putting the greater good ahead of the individual.

 

[TMSBOSS]

Working and contributing to the greater good being central to this concept. Staying home on borrowed money, not so much.

 

[ChrisM]

There was also a time when there was a sense of social responsibility and the value of putting the greater good ahead of the individual.

Why do that when you can have the government force others to do it for you? Or maybe just have the government replace voluntary individual responsibility to each other altogether?

Why is this thread still going? No doubt it was meant to check on people but it was probably always going to turn into a @#$%flinging contest between people who would normally be friendly to each other. Can it at least be moved to the paddock if not removed all together? Literally every other part of life has been consumed by fear, at least keep it off here.

 

[TymeSlayer]

In case anyone was wondering, Me, I'm doing fine other than basically losing the entire year of tracking my Boss but I can't say it's all COVID related. I'm ready to leave 2020 behind and look forward to a spin out or two in 2021!

 

[blacksheep-1]

geez.. sorry I pissed everybody off.
I edited it..
you're welcome

 

[302BOB]

geez.. sorry I pissed everybody off.

Tough crowds are had to please....continue what you're doing and hope for the best.............was that a Seinfeld quote???

 

[blacksheep-1]

Tough crowds are had to please....continue what you're doing and hope for the best.............was that a Seinfeld quote???

Here's the deal, I have a friend with COVID, he's older than me, smoked all his life, might actually die from it, I told him about the shirt, he loved it.
I might not get COVID,
I might get COVID
I might get it and get over it
I might die from it
I might have already had it and not even known it
I wear a mask when I'm asked, I social distance, I wash my hands a lot
there are things worse than COVID, a lingering death from cancer or Alzheimer's comes to mind
but I refuse to be a slave to it.

IMSA did an outstanding job this year running the series, I was informed after the fact, and by a person I trust that they were warned in California that the authorities would be watching from around Laguna Seca, and if they saw people not wearing their masks, they would shut the race down, on the spot. I get the feeling that they actually would've gotten off on that, but we complied, so they were forced to go along. The entire logistical nightmare of running the series was incredible.

 

[TymeSlayer]

A testament to proceeding with caution rather than burying one's head in the sand. I got in one track day this year with NASA and things were certainly restrictive but not impossible. I would have done more but for a well publicized heating/PCM issue with my Boss that I've posted here on TMO.

I, for one, did not find the shirts offensive in any way. Poking a bit of fun at things is a good way to cope. It helps us get by and through these things. It takes the edge off. Nor should it be taken as insensitive and I'm sure was not Black Sheep's intent. As a whole, we've been over-sensitized these days, IMHO.

I think I'm going to read all of 302Bob's posts from the beginning to take my mind off things...

 

[GB899]

LIGHTEN THE MOOD... Merry Christmas... eventually...
and enjoy whatever holidays you want to as much as you can any way you can...
cookies, egg nog, ham, turkey, pie, pudding, changing tires (Bill) snuggle under a blanket.. whatever
it has been weird... and will continue for a while longer... but remember every day staring at the grass (or snow) from the top side is a blessing...

 

[302BOB]

I think I'm going to read all of 302Bob's posts from the beginning to take my mind off things..

Hey, Relax and enjoy the view......I'll be inside watching the snow come down tomorrow nite......shoveling Thursday is another story.................