Wake up Ford...

[Grant 302]

I don't know enough about shareholders, or how entities like mutual funds actually think (it may be just a bunch of glorified speculation; that certainly seems to be the case with Tesla with what I read earlier this morning as having a P/E of 270 and is capitalized at more than Toyota).

I’ve said in the past that the real danger to Tesla is direct competition from any other major manufacturer. I thought it would come in the form of a high volume and ‘low’/subsidized econo EV. It’s my belief that Ford already has (or had) the capability to do so...and that the evolution would be an EV only platform.

But it appears, that Ford is going after the higher end of the spectrum with the Mach-E...which seems to me to more directly compete as a Tesla-like product. I hope this strategy works.

On that note, I do wish Ford responded better to the Cybertruck release and the stupid tug-of-war that was unfairly stacked against the F-150.

 

[Grant 302]

Give the masses what they want. And unfortunately for us, we are not the masses.

I disagree. Many of us here are part of ‘the masses’. Lots of F-150 owners amongst our ranks and I bought another Edge last year. Looking at a Ranger when we exit from Covid-19 crap. Whenever that is.

 

[Ludachris]

I disagree. Many of us here are part of ‘the masses’. Lots of F-150 owners amongst our ranks and I bought another Edge last year. Looking at a Ranger when we exit from Covid-19 crap. Whenever that is.

There is always going to be some crossover. The point was that if Ford receives a lot of feedback from their customers in regards to their high volume products, that's going to be a bit different when compared to getting feedback from the vocal enthusiasts for a lower volume performance product - especially if the feedback is disjointed and involves making changes that are difficult to make a business case for. I think they expect to always be criticized for things they do with the Mustang because enthusiast owners are passionate and love to share thoughts on what they should have done differently with that offering.

I'm glad to see the Ranger coming back. Though the compact truck segment doesn't really look too "compact" these days.

 

[Fat Boss]

Tesla must be doing something right. Despite the JD Powers ranking, TSLA is now the most valuable car company in the world.

 

[blacksheep-1]

There is always going to be some crossover. The point was that if Ford receives a lot of feedback from their customers in regards to their high volume products, that's going to be a bit different when compared to getting feedback from the vocal enthusiasts for a lower volume performance product - especially if the feedback is disjointed and involves making changes that are difficult to make a business case for. I think they expect to always be criticized for things they do with the Mustang because enthusiast owners are passionate and love to share thoughts on what they should have done differently with that offering.

I'm glad to see the Ranger coming back. Though the compact truck segment doesn't really look too "compact" these days.

My wife has a 96 Ranger with about a million miles on it, she refuses to buy another truck because they are all too big, Everyone went from compact trucks to mid size, and now there are no compact trucks. Ford sold every (small) Ranger it made up until the last one rolled off the assembly line. I'm not sure if government crash tests screwed them over, or if they did some "market test" and decided to end the small Ranger. In any case there is still an untapped market there. We have actually looked around for another small Ranger in good shape, but since those trucks were so well built, all the used ones are totally worn out, just like hers.

 

[Grant 302]

I think they expect to always be criticized for things they do with the Mustang because enthusiast owners are passionate and love to share thoughts on what they should have done differently with that offering.

Sounds like you’re talking about every other Mustang forum. And there’s solid proof that they paid attention to those. Some examples here, but not going into history on that.

...

I do see that the compact truck market is still untapped. But I think Ford is correct that there are only smaller margins to be found there today.

If and when I buy a Ranger, it’d be the smallest truck around, aside from the yard service guys.

 

[blacksheep-1]

Thank God Mustang enthusiasts are outspoken or we'd all be driving little turdhopper front drive mustangs by now..remember the Ford Mustang..errr Mazda Probe debacle they tried to pass off as the "next" Mustang around 1991?

 

[Norm Peterson]

Tesla must be doing something right. Despite the JD Powers ranking, TSLA is now the most valuable car company in the world.

Whatever they are doing, I don't think Ford would be able to duplicate it.

Snipped from a recent post to a Tesla discussion thread on another forum (emphasis mine) . . . "Wall Street is apparently very optimistic about Tesla's prospects for future growth and profits" . . . the polite word 'illusion' comes to mind, as Tesla's 'most valuable' status bears zero correlation with either production or sales. 3.5% or 23.5% more valuable than Toyota while selling only about 3.5% as many vehicles???

Quote: same thread

One share of Tesla stock traded for more than $1,130 on Wednesday, pushing the company's market capitalization to nearly $210 billion. That sent Tesla's market cap past Toyota, which is worth either $170 billion or $203 billion, depending on how you count it. Tesla is now the world's most valuable car company.

Quote: and again

It's a remarkable milestone for a company that sells far fewer cars than its leading rivals. Toyota and its subsidiaries sold 10.7 million vehicles in 2019, while Volkswagen and its subsidiaries sold almost 11 million vehicles. Tesla sold a comparatively tiny 367,500 vehicles last year.

Norm

 

[JDee]

Buy on mystery, sell on history. Tesla is still a mystery so it's hot but that will change. The reality of insufficient power grids to supply vast numbers of electric vehicles will take quite a while to fix and that's going to impact their growth potential. Once that becomes clear sanity will set in. Or as much sanity as there can ever be in the stock market....

 

[Bill Pemberton]

There is some truth in what JDee is commenting on , and folks will always get excited with things new and innovative. The issue comes down to how will Tesla do when the rest of the EV Automotive Landscape is completely up and running? What bothers me is similar to JDee's comment on buying on mystery selling on history, as I think many are buying on excitement and perception , but forgetting issues and reality.

Some how in the very same week that Tesla is touted the Numero Uno Car Company they are shown to be at the absolute bottom of the J.D. Power initial quality awards. Not mid pack , no not average, but the absolute bottom. The fact that the Stock P/E multiples are not sustainable is also part of unbridled enthusiasm , but not realistic . In times past quality drug down the Industry and was one of the main factors that enabled the Japanese and others to begin their major inroads against the US Manufacturing Giants.

All that said , do I believe Tesla will survive , and the answer would be yes, but at a level that will put them likely mid pack in Automotive World. The power grid situation is real, as JDee mentioned, but I actually am confident that problem will cease to be a major factor in years to come. We already have cars using solar panels and other methods ( brake regeneration) to extend range and to help repower, so that bodes well for lower charge needs along with more and more States viewing alternative power. Goofy Nebraska has the highest sustained winds in the United States , yet we lag by at least a decade even getting things going ( very little wind power here).

 

[Grant 302]

I don’t disagree with the assertion that Tesla is overvalued, but I’d stick (mainly) to analysis of earnings/profit.

I do think that’s one reason Ford pulled back from the (old) global ‘One Ford’ thinking and sold off Volvo, etc.

Spread so thin and with so many arms based in so many countries, it was harder to have decent profit margins. I believe that won’t be as much of a problem for a Tesla without getting into the detail.

But yes, it it still an unreasonable price for their stock and is purely speculative in nature.

If and when there is enough EV market share to support those valuation levels, other manufacturers will certainly have scaled up to take their portion of it. Tesla would be lucky to retain even a quarter at that time.

With appropriately structured backstops, I think some will make a ton of money shorting TSLA.

 

[Bill Pemberton]

My thoughts exactly , but I don't have the time or the guts (this late in life ) to play the shorting game and will leave that up to experts like Grant. Definitely think that is a huge possibility, but I would probably be taking an afternoon nap and completely miss the proper timing, ha.

 

[Grant 302]

Thank God Mustang enthusiasts are outspoken or we'd all be driving little turdhopper front drive mustangs by now..remember the Ford Mustang..errr Mazda Probe debacle they tried to pass off as the "next" Mustang around 1991?

A friend of a friend bought one of those new in ‘92 (one of the last I think). He was proud to own it and none of quite understood why. We called it Ana...

One time I hope Ford would have learned from complaints from Mustang faithful...was back for the ‘03-‘04 Mach 1s. The manuals got a forged crank and the automatics didn’t. Suffice to say I hope they don’t ever make penny-pinching bean counter appeasing mistakes like that ever again.

 

[Norm Peterson]

A friend of a friend bought one of those new in ‘92 (one of the last I think). He was proud to own it and none of quite understood why. We called it Ana...

It wasn't that the basic chassis wasn't at least decent (it was shared with Mazda's MX-6 and 626, and I autocrossed a 626 with Probe springs for a while).

Probe-stang just wasn't a Mustang any more than the Mitsubishi/Dodge Challenger was a real Dodge Challenger.


Norm

 

[Bill Pemberton]

Agreed Norm, I autocrossed both a Probe GT and a Mazda MX6 with quite a bit of success, and for what the car was on it's own it was a fun ride. Ford got over their idea it would be a replacement for the Mustang and both the MX6 and the Probe were nice looking machines for the front driver set. Cars ran in G Stock and were competitive and I knew a few guys who switched over to Mazda springs for their Probes.

 

[Grant 302]

It wasn't that the basic chassis wasn't at least decent (it was shared with Mazda's MX-6 and 626, and I autocrossed a 626 with Probe springs for a while).

Probe-stang just wasn't a Mustang any more than the Mitsubishi/Dodge Challenger was a real Dodge Challenger.


Norm

Yes Norm, nothing against the car or chassis. I wasn’t even a Ford or Mustang owner back then. But I never liked the re-branding of products...or the stupid Probe name.

And later, to learn that it was intended to replace the Mustang was pretty disappointing if not disgusting.

I thought the Dodge was a Charger and that there were Daytona and Shelby versions. From what I recall at least, but don’t know if there was also a Challenger in there.

And I’m not gonna bother arguing why on the day we celebrate our country’s birth...

 

[Norm Peterson]

Dodge did a not-a-real-Charger as well, except I think that one was Omni-based.


Norm

 

[Bill Pemberton]

Norm is correct , they even did a Dodge Shelby Charger and it was a solid little autocross machine back in the day.

 

[Grant 302]

I’m probably one of the few here who would have considered a Continental, but I think Ford failed to advertise and push them at all. And I’ve never even seen one rolling around in Newport or any of the coastal cities here.

Ford discontinues Lincoln Continental: Luxury sedan usurped by SUVs

Ford Motor confirmed that it plans to end production of the Lincoln Continental luxury sedan in the U.S. at the end of 2020.

www.usatoday.com

I've only looked them over on the showroom floor and didn’t get to test drive. But I thought it was much nicer than say the circa 2011 Lincolns I last looked at up close...which were obviously upscale Fords and ugly, IMO. This Continental didn’t look like it started life as a Ford.

 

[Grant 302]

I do see that the compact truck market is still untapped. But I think Ford is correct that there are only smaller margins to be found there today.

…aaaand enter the Maverick.
Again, maybe Ford pays more attention to odd suggestions from the miscellaneous corners of the internet than people think.
Maybe smaller margins, but larger market share are part of the current plan.

Ford is also taking significant EV market share according to the April sales data. Based on what I saw at dealerships recently, I think that will continue into summer.