DOW 23,000+ today?

[Grant 302]

Scary, emotional, over publicized causing amateurs to over react. The news, the markets, medical hysteria...... take your pick.

Business As Usual.

 

[TMSBOSS]

On the other hand, perhaps you left coasters may see gas under $3

"Fuel" costs are about the same nationwide. Socialism on the other hand costs more in certain regions.

 

[Fat Boss]

I wouldn't 'try to catch a falling knife'.

I've been in basically cash, including my 401k since last Aug. I only bought in about 3% of my portfolio in the oil stocks this morning. I agree we haven't seen the bottom yet.

 

[TymeSlayer]

Speaking of gas, first my Doc told me more fiber and that certainly gave me some. Now he's got me on probiotics and same thing. Perhaps my wife is right when she tells me breathing gives me gas.

 

[Grant 302]

I've been in basically cash, including my 401k since last Aug. I only bought in about 3% of my portfolio in the oil stocks this morning. I agree we haven't seen the bottom yet.

Even then, I would wait to participate. It's not impossible for that 3% to become 2%. It's my feeling that patience wouldn't hurt right now.

 

[Fat Boss]

It's tough to not be a buyer at these prices. It reminds me of when I bought F for like 1.47 and sold it a few weeks later for 7. But I hear you. I'll do some limited dollar cost averaging. But, even if that 3% turns into 2%, I'm fully expecting it to be 6%+ in a couple years. I think these oil prices will drive higher cost producers from the market. It might take a while, but the market will correct and likely over correct to the upside, at some point.

I'm kinda sad watching LRCX get shellacked like this. We're in the early stages of a multi year upturn in the semi cap equip market, and here's the stock down $75 off it's highs. My RSU's haven't vested yet, so I'm in for a roller coaster ride there.

 

[Grant 302]

My personal aversion to buying on the way down is from past analysis of ‘first bought shares’ where I have made several purchases of the same stock (and any other financial instrument). I found that the first purchase was often the worst performing group of shares or contracts. And that includes my F purchases as it dropped into the $1.xx range.

Following your example above what your 6+% position would be with the lower purchase price is 9+%.

That just the way my personal experience worked out as a former ‘dollar cost average’ buyer. When we watched the drop in late 2018, it worked to wait about three trading days for price action to ‘confirm’ the bottom was in.

And even on a day like today, where it is rebounding a bit...I don’t think the bottom is in yet.

Even today as I’ve been typing this post, some patience with timing more Put purchases at opening (or even yesterday) vs a few minutes ago is working in my favor.

 

[TymeSlayer]

Just about came full circle. I think I saw 23,335 about 1:10PM MST.

 

[Grant 302]

Just about came full circle. I think I saw 23,335 about 1:10PM MST.

And that's just the beginning...of the next leg down.

Right now ~19k wouldn't surprise me. And there are a few spots in between that are good candidates. One of interest above that is between 22/23k. Mentioned that to some friends over breakfast on Sat. I don't think I posted that specifically here.

 

[Surfergeek]

Guess we don’t need to consider changing the name of the thread anymore.

 

[Grant 302]

Well...Tyme has the right idea here:

You could just change the + sign on the topic header to the - sign and it would be current!

 

[Grant 302]

a side note: Ford is starting to look attractive at 6.80 a share...

Not sure it's a buy at $5.90...

 

[Fat Boss]

I suspect we're going to continue to hear the virus is getting out of hand over the next weeks and months. Since I'm not a trader, I'm going to largely sit on the sidelines. I have heavy exposure to LRCX and can't do anything about that.

Well, LRCX was down $38.78 TODAY, to close at $237.85. That's down $100/share in one month. "Make the bad man go away."

On the bright side, my 401k is up 0.27% YTD.

 

[VoodooBoss]

I’m a buyer yesterday and today. Be patient. One of my favorite quotes.

 

[TymeSlayer]

Excellent advise by the Oracle of Omaha.

Bought into SIRI and F late yesterday and will ride this all out. I have a few other's I'm waiting to see if I can tyme out the bottom.

 

[TymeSlayer]

And this from GM and Ford:

Ford, GM instruct employees to work from home due to coronavirus

Ford Motor and General Motors have instructed employees who can work from home to do so beginning Monday due to concerns over the coronavirus.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Grant 302]

Be patient.

This. I haven’t ‘bought’ anything yet. And will still wait for a confirmation move before I do. Besides, I gotta dump the rest of the hedge positions and figure out my tax liability before I do. This is all unexpected income that I can’t avoid now.

Vix is still expanding. There’s a good chance of another leg down next week. And I’m somewhat expecting things to slide down for the rest of the day.

Patience...

 

[Ludachris]

Just read this...

Something's Wrong: Stock Sell-Off Exposes Weak Links In Financial System

The worry is that bankers, traders and big funds might suddenly find themselves out of cash. Such a scenario could create an ugly spiral throughout the economy.

www.npr.org

Concerning or not?

 

[Grant 302]

Just read this...

Something's Wrong: Stock Sell-Off Exposes Weak Links In Financial System

The worry is that bankers, traders and big funds might suddenly find themselves out of cash. Such a scenario could create an ugly spiral throughout the economy.

www.npr.org

Concerning or not?

Simple answer is:Yes.

At least for the short term. My opinion is not to worry about it though, for long term effects. This is not like 2007. But the Fed will be pulling some levers to help. Buybacks and the half point rate cut mean that they are concerned enough to act.

 

[VoodooBoss]

Yes it's a concern. I read on Monday that the UK bond market did not have ANY bids for the 10 yr Monday morning. But this is nothing even close to what happened in 2008. Events like this always dry up liquidity. The major banks have this covered and are in much better shape than in September 2008.