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DOW 23,000+ today?

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I’m not saying it doesn’t work but from my experience many of the large institutional quality equity focused hedge funds don’t do a lot of hedging. They typically run a gross exposure up to 130% or more and many have a long bias. Hence the pressure from margin calls.
 

Grant 302

basic and well known psychic
Yes, and the proof is that once in a while they fail, and the same people show up in different shops shortly after. It’s not my belief that it’s more the norm.

...

Forgot to post it earlier, but ex Ford CEO Fields was on CNBC talking about Tesla and Elon. Weird. And a bit inappropriate IMO.

Didn’t really care for him and wasn’t interested in owning F under his (brief) leadership.

EDIT: Would help if I added it. :rolleyes:
 
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Grant 302

basic and well known psychic
~$20B short interest on TSLA according to this article:


Craziness.

...

Divergence in various indicies while the DOW continues to consolidate is pretty unusual.
 
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I once machined a motor adapter plate for a young guy making an electric car out of a $2k passat with a blown engine. He was using an electric Ford Ranger (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ford_Ranger_EV) motor for the project. Well, that experience certainly served him well as he went on to get 60k shares of TSLA when he went to work there. For funsies, that 60k shares would translate to $90M in straight math. I know you pay taxes along the way, and he sold shares along the way I'm sure. But, what a ride for that guy.

I bought a couple shares a few months ago at $475. They're now up over $1k per share. :oops:
 

Grant 302

basic and well known psychic
$6MM AAPL for me IF I hung on to all of it...I have lots of woulda-coulda-shoulda stories.

Another was missing the GOOG IPO...because I was working. Haven’t even figured out what that would have been worth. Not sure I want to know.
 

Grant 302

basic and well known psychic
Nice move into the close today. Back over 26k.

And maybe I was a bit wrong about the travel and transportation stocks. Lots of em took big bounces today.
 
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One of my good friend's dad was a Supply Chain VP at Apple in about 2000. He walked out, stormed out actually, when he was passed over for a Sr VP job. Would have been worth a mint these days.
 

Grant 302

basic and well known psychic
Consolidation appears to continue around levels established in June...and it does seem like a break to the upside might happen sooner than later. Maybe after a flush-out style dip first.

TSLA supposedly getting the boost from young momentum chasers...causing the spike last week which mostly fizzled out yesterday. Lowering of Model Y pricing and cutting the standard range option seem like fairly drastic moves.
 

Grant 302

basic and well known psychic
Yeah, might look into prices of the way out of the money options expiring this week. More interested in the put side but I doubt any of that is cheap enough to be of interest.

I’ve been thinking you were gonna comment about LRCX back at 2020 highs...
 

Grant 302

basic and well known psychic
Lol. Saw a $435 upgraded target, but otherwise just watching it rise.

The TSLA ‘surprise’ beat at top and bottom lines make some sense after beating up employees and landlords taking advantage of Covid hardships...but I still gotta question how sustainable it is going forward. Honestly, I’m not liking it that ownership may be forced on many if they squeak into the S&P.
 
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LRCX is like the energizer bunny these days. I'm sure glad I made the move about a year and a half ago from AMAT. Lam has significantly outperformed Applied in the time since. We're gaining market share in a ever growing market.

BTW, it's not just 2020 highs, it's all time highs! The five year plan for me to buy a bigger, better house with a big shop is on track.

As for TSLA, it's really starting to remind me of AMZN. Bezos took huge losses and not much profit for many years. If TSLA can start the big rig production this calendar year, it's one more thing to keep the valuations inflated.
 

Grant 302

basic and well known psychic
From my macro economic view, using stock market gains to fund future property should work well. The thing to time or be sensitive to is when interest rates go up. Essentially, gotta get in with a good rate and make sure it’s fixed. Fixed rate kept me outta trouble come 2009...and was able to refi when most people couldn’t and credit was still tight.

But I wouldn’t be quick to liken TSLA to AMZN. TSLA still isn’t making money...when you exclude emission credits. As a car manufacturer, still bleeding cash and not even in positive cash position or cash flow positive without it. And those credits go away in the coming years if, or as other manufacturers don’t need them.

It’s been 10 years since the IPO without any real profits...while cutting prices and even squeezing employees with pay cuts. And like I’ve harped about the in the past, the EV competition via big 3 is just getting started. Like it or not, newcomers like the Mach-E are going to suck up market share.

I’m not sure exactly how TSLA gets out of the situation as I see it unfolding.

In contrast, AMZN did exactly what they needed to. Squash the competition by undercutting. Having a business model that thrives under pandemic conditions doesn’t hurt either.
 
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I actually have a funky 10/10/10 loan from my credit union. Four years ago I got 3% locked in for the first ten years. After that, it can potentially go up another 3%- depending on rates at that time. Then tens years later it can potentially rise another 3%. I can of course refi at any time. It allowed me to lock in a much lower first ten years without going full adjustable. I've been happy with it and right now I can't see rates being all that much higher 6 years from now.

One thing about real estate is I have always wanted to own a few houses to rent out for retirement income. I'm REALLY rethinking that now that the government in CA is totally screwing over landlords be banning evictions. I'd rather fund my retirement in other ways, maybe commercial real estate.

I'd agree with you if TSLA was "just" a car company. It seems like they're making a big push to be the battery kings of tomorrow. Between the technology to design and the yuge gigafactory, they're really gaining economies of scale that will be tough to beat. It's the semi market that intrigues me though. The cost per mile is going to be something like half the cost of diesel, and self driving would be a game changer. That said, I wouldn't be a buyer at today's prices.
 
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I'm amazed the DJIA is now back well above 26,000. At some point it has to run out of track, right?

LRCX is reporting earnings after the close. I suspect the earnings will be right on or slightly above the consensus. It's the outlook that I'm mostly interested in. With TSMC and AMD both having good news lately, I'm expecting a rosy outlook for the next quarter or two. They typically hate to give forward looking statements in times of uncertainly. But, after getting a pass from the analysts last quarter, they'll likely give one this time around.
 
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#crushedit


Earnings per share were $4.73 vs consensus estimate of $4.20

LRCX was up almost $12 during the session and is currently up over $17 after hours. #boomshukaluka
 

1995CobraR

Three time Champion
55
48
Exp. Type
W2W Racing
Exp. Level
20+ Years
Sandy Springs, GA
From my macro economic view, using stock market gains to fund future property should work well.

I firmly disagree. Macroeconomics is an analysis of a nation's economy going forward. No one knows about the current China virus, and how it will effect the future of any earnings flow (not including the socialist people in Washington).

I have no debt and still think the risk to all assets may be negative. I like cash when everyone says that "cash is trash".
 

Grant 302

basic and well known psychic
I waffled too long about making an earnings bet for LRCX. Will be interesting to see how well it holds into tomorrow.

I'd agree with you if TSLA was "just" a car company.
That’s a good point for the long haul. Assuming all the parts work together towards a vertical supply chain and all the benefits that come from it.

I'm amazed the DJIA is now back well above 26,000. At some point it has to run out of track, right?
I don’t think so.
 

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