DOW 23,000+ today?

Discussion in 'The Paddock' started by Grant 302, Oct 17, 2017.

  1. Grant 302

    Grant 302 OPM Spent: $587,402 Moderator

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    ...and in the green a few minutes ago. :D
     
  2. Grant 302

    Grant 302 OPM Spent: $587,402 Moderator

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    Looks like a buying dip to me. Price action still looks like 'shallow pullback' I mentioned earlier.

    Expecting significant movement with tomorrow closing the month and proximity to the end of the week.
     
  3. Grant 302

    Grant 302 OPM Spent: $587,402 Moderator

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    Looks like the 'shallow pullback' was done to end Feb and that it's 'clear' or free to move up for March.

    Expecting a test of 26.6k or so this month at the very least. 27k+ seems likely to me. Even if it is just for a test within the month.

    Strength and momentum are pretty good and I could see progress toward say 27.5k or 28k+ in May or any tyme between now and Memorial day.
     
  4. TymeSlayer

    TymeSlayer Tramps like us, Baby we were born to run...

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    My only fear would be the Trump factor but I agree. If there's fire where we're starting to see smoke (in the oval office) the market will go through rough tymes.
     
  5. Grant 302

    Grant 302 OPM Spent: $587,402 Moderator

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    Not worried about that. The market always needs a 'wall of worry to climb'. No pun intended.
     
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  6. VoodooBoss

    VoodooBoss Rick Moderator

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    Screen Shot 2019-03-01 at 8.11.32 AM.png
     
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  7. TymeSlayer

    TymeSlayer Tramps like us, Baby we were born to run...

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    Just a decade or so off the mark but who wouldn't like to see it? Some shorts?
     
  8. Grant 302

    Grant 302 OPM Spent: $587,402 Moderator

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    They'll fuel the rise as they get squeezed.
     
  9. Fat Boss

    Fat Boss TMO Addict

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    I re-read my offer letter and the RSU's are established using the average of the previous 30 closing prices for LRCX. Need more days like today! Not sure when they actually put a stake in the ground for the pricing though. I think it has to be done at a board meeting or something like that.
     
  10. Grant 302

    Grant 302 OPM Spent: $587,402 Moderator

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    I think the pullback might *finally* be done with yesterday's bounce. Might need a bit of time to consolidate near this level before moving higher. Although possible, I don't think it needs to re-test the mid-24k range again. I'm pretty well covered between here and that level. I'd like to see about 26.6k for the next leg up.

    Be careful what you wish for! I'd rather see constructive price action from here. That little dip looks good to me, but not gonna help you much for a 30-day average. Too much of a dip and that would indicate downward momentum to continue. JMO.
     
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  11. Grant 302

    Grant 302 OPM Spent: $587,402 Moderator

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    25,754.09 +199.43 at the moment. At least I don't feel the need to insert foot in mouth. :D

    I'm sure that'll be tomorrow. :rolleyes:
     
  12. TymeSlayer

    TymeSlayer Tramps like us, Baby we were born to run...

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    Looks like Boeing can't hold us back!
     
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  13. Fat Boss

    Fat Boss TMO Addict

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    I finally paid off my 401k loan I took out 4 years ago to help buy my first house. Feels good to have that money back in my 401k.

    In all honesty, I think downward momentum to continue would be beneficial in my particular situation. My time horizon is 3 years to have a chunk of change ready to either buy the 4 acre lot next door and build a shop on it, or sell the house and buy one with a shop. In the interim I'll be buying a fair amount of LRCX in the employee stock purchase program. Do you agree that a year or so of downward momentum would be good in my case? Or am I just dreaming? Cause I like to dream. :rolleyes:
     
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  14. Grant 302

    Grant 302 OPM Spent: $587,402 Moderator

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    I think the best thing to do for the long haul is to buy incrementally. Pick an interval, 3 mo., 6 mo. or annually to make your purchases. That said...

    "Kevin Jennings Sells 1,553 Shares of Lam Research Co. (NASDAQ:LRCX) Stock"

    On Wednesday, February 6th, Kevin Jennings sold 1,692 shares of Lam Research stock. The stock was sold at an average price of $180.00, for a total transaction of $304,560.00


    When I held stock in the parent company that I worked for, I paid a LOT of attention to 'Form 4' company news. After seeing these headlines, I'd be inclined to use patience when considering timing your purchases. Especially your first.
     
  15. Fat Boss

    Fat Boss TMO Addict

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    Thanks Grant. In many ways the RSU's will be kinda the first purchase since the price will get locked in on the biggest positions I'll have in the stock. The stock purchase plan will be buying every 6 months at a min discount of 15%, so the first purchase will be six months down the road at least. My goal is to try and buy the 11% of my salary in stock, which is the Lam limit. As for the Sr VP selling the shares, I'm not too concerned with it. Some of them have set sell dates to diversify, maybe that's it. Maybe he wants a new backyard. Long term the business prospects are very good IMO.
     
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  16. Grant 302

    Grant 302 OPM Spent: $587,402 Moderator

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    At least it seems that way!
     
  17. Swine

    Swine TMO Advanced

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    I dont or atleast havent played the short game yet, but Boeing would be on my hit list. Ill be looking to start a long position after an additional 10-15% sell off in the coming 2-3 months.
     
  18. Grant 302

    Grant 302 OPM Spent: $587,402 Moderator

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    I'd be careful doing anything like that without using some sort of hedge. Many don't understand that shorting carries *infinite* risk...or what a margin call is. And for those that do understand what those risks are...most don't know how to cap that risk. There are better ways to 'play' for the downside.

    That said...bad news pricing is often baked in by the time an average investor thinks to short it. This is why shorts get squeezed and a stock can go up despite the negative news.

    -----

    Expecting a bit more consolidation at these levels for the DOW before it'll move again. Loading up on spread positions to look for a breakout. I'm thinking in the 2-6 week range. Tomorrow or end of March would be great.
     
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  19. Bouncing Soul

    Bouncing Soul TMO Intermediate

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    I learned the hard way on unhedged margin trades and calls in 2008. Whew. Also learned the IRS adds insult to injury as your STCG tax base has uncapped gains, but your trading losses are capped at a pretty small amount for an individual.
     
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