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Discussion in 'The Paddock' started by Grant 302, Oct 17, 2017.
Long term or short term?
Long term may be too long to effect some of us here and He may not get re- elected next yr........tough call, especially since I'm no expert................It's a luck of the draw for many....for a reason...unless you have inside help...oops, did I say that??????????
This level (26,000) has been breached three times already since 2017 and tested it a couple more times in between. Again, I think it's time to move onward an upward. Maybe sooner than the Q3 prediction considering this week's strength overshadowing the last 3 weeks and 'challenging' the last 4.
Folks are still iffy about Trump's tariff polices, but are starting to say the heck with it and move on.
Fear only needs to spook a small number of people for a selloff. That volume runs out pretty quickly for minor issues. So the vast majority of people did absolutely nothing since May started. That tail end worked out well for me. I made money from the last dump once it dropped below about 25,600. I can buy 90% of the hedges back for less than I bought them for in the first place. I only started a fraction of the buy back today. I'm thinking I won't need them.
Short term topping signals in today’s price action despite being an up/green day. I would be surprised if tomorrow or even this week closes up. Reduced some of my upside leverage early in the day.
Not expecting to visit anywhere near May’s lows, but ready if it does.
S&P is only 2.3% below it's record high. Unless you're trading day in and day out, you just gotta wait these peaks and valleys out.
And if you think Trump and his game of tariffs drive you crazy now, wait 'till he slaps one on the state of California!
Be nice. We can only assume a tariff on Cali. will only be another bill they cant pay.
Thin line between a tariff and a new tax in the states. I should know ..I live in the "tax you to death" state of Ct.Now we need tolls to augment the gasoline tax, where revenues are down because cars are getting better gas mileage now. In the old days, when we had tolls, they were collected on only 2 major highways. The new proposal increases that to six.If this keeps up , I may have to pay a toll to get out of my driveway!!!!!!!!!........Back to the topic at hand....The Dow will settle down ,now that Trump has.............
I generally agree with you regarding what most people should do, but I don't trade frequently or daily regarding market swings, if that's your impression. I wouldn't be able to control the tax burden otherwise. Not even with the hedges for which I'm most active. Though I do pay attention daily and might be on a buying/selling cycle over several days, I am looking for the 'good' or 'right' days to buy, sell, roll the hedge positions. Big swings have better visibility in the week and month view and that's in line with most option expirations. I'm not a 'day trader' or 'pattern' day trader as defined by the SEC or FINRA. That's just not how Grant rolls.
It hasn't hurt me yet to mostly ignore the headline news.
But the taxes here are ridiculous enough...
There's still 2 1/2 hours to go today, but so far this prediction is holding up. Not that it's really worth anything to me at the moment, but I don't feel the need to be (additionally) leveraged to the upside like I was last week.
So even though that's my near term daily view, I'm still bullish for new highs in Q3.
Day trading is a full tyme job. Most people I know that had at it failed miserably. I think you're odds at success at it are worse than the tables in Vegas.
Right. I think the biggest problem is that day traders typically operate on margin. No way to recover the small losses when you're wrong. Recipe for disaster, IMO.
It's always great theater when The Donald riles up Governor Jerry "Moonbeam" Brown's replacement, former San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom. A Kalifornia tariff would have the Dems in Sacto spinning out...
Price action still says we're clear for new highs through Q3. Once 27k falls, a relatively quick run to high 29k seems reasonable. Say 29.7-29.8k before the shorts really pile in. My loose time target is for end of Sept '19.
Ironically, it'll be the shorts that fuel the rise as they cover losing positions from every new high.
Be long and prosper.
I love it when the shorts take it in the shorts. Professional shorts that is. I know a guy that does nothing but bet against companies. I ran him over with my Boss, backed up and ran him over again. He's real short now that I flattened him like a squirrel. Heck, I've shorted a few in my days too but never tried to earn a living off of other's misery. Perhaps I'm just as bad when I'm amused while watching them run to cover.
Okay, I'm better now.
Lol. I may lack respect for 'perma-shorts', but I don't have that kind of hate for 'em!
Rather, I 'thank' them for giving up their money and fueling the inevitable rises!
Wow, That was a close one! I was ready to call the Boys...And I don't even know which ones!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Boom. DOW *finally* catching up to the S&P500 as predicted. Still maintaining a Q3 target to top out.
Enjoy the summer and Happy 4th!
This must be early fireworks............The 4th is always a Holiday to enjoy...I remember 1976....vaguely......