DOW 23,000+ today?

[Grant 302]

Wow. Short term bearish bet with weekly puts really paying off. Sometimes pays more to hedge than sell!

 

[Grant 302]

Nice move today. DJIA at new highs over 26,6xx Cash deployed in March paying off nicely.

 

[VoodooBoss]

S&P 500 is also doing well. Being invested in the US stock market since the financial crisis will probably go down as one of the best ten year periods to be invested in the stock market. At least during my lifetime.

 

[Grant 302]

The only thing better was moving to cash and bonds in Nov '07. Good time to be getting ready for retirement either way.

 

[Swine]

Sold out of Baba and TCEHY holdings a few days ago due to margin positions and to much risk/not worth carrying the interest rate. I ended up even on Baba after being up 25% and lost 30% on TCEHY. Unfortunate and id prefer to be holding but didnt make sense until this spat is resolved (for me)

 

[Wingrider]

S&P 500 is also doing well. Being invested in the US stock market since the financial crisis will probably go down as one of the best ten year periods to be invested in the stock market. At least during my lifetime.

+1

A+++ Would buy from again!

The only one better might be AAPL around 1999....

 

[xr7]

I bought in 2008, increased 401k input 50%. As my father-in-law told me, stocks are on sale 50% off or more. Buy!

 

[Bill Pemberton]

After 10 year run , one wonders if we are not getting close to a pause?

 

[VoodooBoss]

It's called an economic cycle because it has distinct stages. All economic cycles end and our current cycle is either in the late third quarter or early fourth quarter. It WILL end eventually but my bet isn't until 2020. The economy is nowhere near what happened at the beginning of the financial crisis and the next economic downturn should be a more normal resetting of economic activity.

 

[Bill Pemberton]

Oh, I understand, but it is interesting that Buffet and others are so heavy into cash now, and agree we are likely in the fourth quarter. Will be interesting to see where the Tariff Situation takes us , and whether it accelerates the cycle?

 

[VoodooBoss]

I could have sworn I saw Buffet on TV last week stating he was still heavily invested in the stock market? Once the trade tariffs get settled, and they will, the US markets could have a "melt up" if we're not already in one now.

I was chatting with some former coworkers earlier this week about the financial crisis and how our office handled it. Wild times and not something I will soon forget.

 

[Bill Pemberton]

He is heavy in stocks, but he has a large stockpile of cash too. The Tariff fighting on so many fronts could have a troublesome outcome if only one major area does not compromise , imho.

 

[VoodooBoss]

He has plenty of cash but he's buying stocks. Having some dry powder is always a good idea.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2018-08-30/warren-buffett-says-i-m-buying-stocks-video

 

[Bill Pemberton]

Again , no argument , but yearly comments have dwelled on the fact that he was higher in cash reserves than in recent memory, and he has made buys but still relatively flush in cash.

Heh, I have just gotten more conservative in my old age, something that will happen to you now that your are in your 60s ,hehe!

 

[Fat Boss]

Geez I remember asking @Surfergeek at least 4 years ago if we were at the end of the cycle. It's been the energizer bunny of expansions for sure. I'm nursing a sore shoulder from patting myself on the back over the decision to sell all my AMAT stock last year to buy the Shelby! I work there and let's just say its been underperforming lately.

The 401k is still pulling strong. It's been a great few years and this one is exceeding my expectations. I'm at about 16% YTD.

For the time stamp, as of today Sep 21 2018 the only shares I own are in Netflix (they have the whole world laying out the foundations for delivering their product at essentially zero cost to NFLX), Facebook (they have the bulk of the spending world glued to their product), and Lam Research just because it got bludgeoned and it's a very well managed company and I'm a believer in CEO Martin Anstice).

 

[Grant 302]

+1

A+++ Would buy from again!

The only one better might be AAPL around 1999....

The important part would be to have *held* it. Most would be sick if they held as much as I did...only to sell it waaay too early.

Having some dry powder is always a good idea.

Always. Cash or something easily sold like positions with big unrealized gains.

 

[VoodooBoss]

I think he's holding at least a couple of AAPL shares.

 

[Wingrider]

I think he's holding at least a couple of AAPL shares.

Years, and years ago- many many splits back, I sold some to pay off our new-at-the-time 1999 Ford Expedition. The stock had hit one of it's all time highs of something like $43 or $46 ($1.80 today) and nobody expected it would ever get past that. Remember the times, because it was shortly after the iMac and Apple was still a crap shoot. I did the math several years later and it worked out to about $2M had I held onto it. Probably one of the most expensive Expeditions around.

 

[Grant 302]

After 10 year run , one wonders if we are not getting close to a pause?

JMO, but most of 2018 *was* a pause.

Years, and years ago- many many splits back, I sold some to pay off our new-at-the-time 1999 Ford Expedition. The stock had hit one of it's all time highs of something like $43 or $46 ($1.80 today) and nobody expected it would ever get past that. Remember the times, because it was shortly after the iMac and Apple was still a crap shoot. I did the math several years later and it worked out to about $2M had I held onto it. Probably one of the most expensive Expeditions around.

Exactly. I've held AAPL several times since, but never in the quantities circa 2000. Wifey had a turquoise iMac, and also got her a new iPod... but I still thought it was a crap shoot for the long haul. Cheapest shares were bought ~$20 pre-splits. I should probably calculate and add the total dividend missed too.

 

[VoodooBoss]

I agree on the pause in 2018