DOW 23,000+ today?

[Grant 302]

Markets climb a wall of worry.

Certainly true of late. And that peak on Wednesday is a bit of confirmation for my predictions and narrowed my margin of error down to 0.44% from the 29,700 target. (0.53% from the narrowed target at 29,726).

“Anyway, while that's been all nice and profitable...I'm continuing to tighten the straddle/strangle positions around these levels. Even though it's proving to be a level of interest, it's easier to 'bet' that it can't stay in this range forever. And whether that's up or down, I'll make money on all the moves small and large. Smaller, short term bets fund larger long term bets. The longer things linger here, the more opportunity for bigger profits.”

For anyone who understands what this means, it would be clear now that this was the right strategy for this pandemic situation. Anecdotally, I bought disaster insurance, and lots of it, just prior to the disaster. Bought even more as it was in progress.

Anyway, moving forward for me this year will largely managing the tax liability from huge gains. Sure, it’s a good problem to have gains far exceed any of the paper losses, but it’s gut wrenching to pay estimated taxes as is. Just gonna be one of those tymes that Uncle Sam gets the better of me.

As for the buying, I did it in two large chunks late March and early April. And I think that’s gonna be it for the year. Or so I hope, because cost of hedging/‘insuring’ is relatively high right now even pretty far out of the money.

 

[Grant 302]

I think you’re right. But since today is the last trading day of the month, things might get extra crazy. Regardless of where things end up today, before closing I’ll tighten the straddle/strangle option positions. All in anticipation of more volatility to kick off March.

This was the buying of more ‘disaster insurance’ and I added a bit more the following week up until that Wednesday.

 

[Double0Fox]

Nothing really relevant to add, but I finally jumped into this world. Starting pretty small at first.

 

[Tonymustang302]

Waiting for the crash so my gold and silver will pay off my house lolol

 

[TymeSlayer]

And you'll break out in song like Burl Ives...



Sorry for you young ones who won't get it.

Waiting for the crash so my gold and silver will pay off my house lolol

 

[Grant 302]

Waiting for the crash so my gold and silver will pay off my house lolol

I’m certainly not bearish on metals but they aren’t the hedge that they used to be. Look at how it reacted in March.

And FWIW, as long as you make more money than your mortgage costs percentage wise, you should not pay off your house early, even if you are able to do so.

 

[Tonymustang302]

I’m certainly not bearish on metals but they aren’t the hedge that they used to be. Look at how it reacted in March.

And FWIW, as long as you make more money than your mortgage costs percentage wise, you should not pay off your house early, even if you are able to do so.

Really? Im 35 and had it beaten into my head to pay off the house from my euro parents.

When will you do side consulting lol.....

 

[Grant 302]

Really? Im 35 and had it beaten into my head to pay off the house from my euro parents.

When will you do side consulting lol.....

If your mortgage is in the 3-6% range and you can make more than 7%, then paying off the house early is lose-lose. Lose the gains, lose the tax break, lose cash flexibility.

At times in the past when I had extra cash for the month, I had sometimes paid extra toward principal. I regret that in a small way.

Advice to pay down early is good for those who would otherwise just spend it. Not for someone who will invest it and make more.

Consulting and advising others is in any official capacity is hard. I never want to be directly responsible for somebody else’s money.

 

[Grant 302]

I never want to be directly responsible for somebody else’s money.

Unless it’s how to spend it on car parts!

 

[xr7]

How about crude oil prices going negative? Now if I just had a large hole in the ground to store it. Oil companies actually paying to get rid of the oil. Where's Commander Bones Spurs now. Should be filling strategic oil reserve with oil and cash.

 

[Grant 302]

If only. Storage is expensive.

 

[Fat Boss]

If your mortgage is in the 3-6% range and you can make more than 7%, then paying off the house early is lose-lose. Lose the gains, lose the tax break, lose cash flexibility.

I agree 100%. I'm almost 4 years into a 10/10/10 loan. For the first 10 years it's locked at 3%. After that, based on then current rates, the loan can go up to a max of 6%, then 10 years later 9%. But, from what we're seeing today, I don't foresee rates going up that much in the next 6 years. I can refinance at any time.

I put all I can into my 401k and Lam stock purchase plan. Ideally the 401k grows a bunch and I use the stock to buy another house with a large shop for lots of cars, and rent out my current house.

 

[67GTA]

Here at Lam we have a fairly extensive supply chain in China. The first thing we did was push out all deliveries 2 weeks in order to re-run the shortage reports to assess impact. I don't know what the results of that were, but if people start getting sick from receiving parts from China it'll be a big, big deal economically. We've also suspended all international travel.

I'm just wondering if there's going to be a "big scare" that jolts the markets significantly.

@Fat Boss - I read this article this morning on the first known death in the US now is being backed up to Feb 6th, and mentioned she worked for Lam Research in the Bay Area. The company name immediately rang a bell as I’ve read your posts in here. Fast forward to today’s news, and looking back at your posts in retrospect is quite eerie......

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/a...navirus-fatality-in-us/ar-BB134epU?li=BBnb7Kz

 

[Fat Boss]

@Fat Boss - I read this article this morning on the first known death in the US now is being backed up to Feb 6th, and mentioned she worked for Lam Research in the Bay Area. The company name immediately rang a bell as I’ve read your posts in here. Fast forward to today’s news, and looking back at your posts in retrospect is quite eerie......

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/a...navirus-fatality-in-us/ar-BB134epU?li=BBnb7Kz

Yes. I didn't know her, but here's the scoop. She didn't travel to Wuhan, but worked with A LOT of people who regularly did. A short time before she got sick, she traveled from the Bay Area to the Portland area with a guy who works in my building. That guy felt very sick a week later. Meanwhile he'd gone to lunch with a guy WHO SITS ABOUT 8 FEET FROM ME. He felt very sick about a week after that. I actually had what I felt like was a mild cold on March 16, according to my email records to my boss. I don't know if it was a direct chain, and I got the virus, or if it was indirect through one or more in the office, or if it was just a coincidence I got a cold and not the Kung Flu. I won't know until I get an antibodies test. Pretty sketchy though. Frankly I'll be stoked if I test positive for the antibodies.

 

[Grant 302]

if it was just a coincidence I got a cold and not the Kung Flu.

Me too and around the same tyme frame.

Didn’t have any fever/chills, but the symptoms seem pretty widely varied for cases on the mild side.

I don’t have any close contact that I can trace like you do, but with three kids in the house, who knows.

 

[Tonymustang302]

Me too and around the same tyme frame.

Didn’t have any fever/chills, but the symptoms seem pretty widely varied for cases on the mild side.

I don’t have any close contact that I can trace like you do, but with three kids in the house, who knows.

I know a good amount of people that were really sick, myself included, around dec/jan that was not the normal flu. Im thinking we had some form of it.

Maybe i should inject myself with disinfectant like our fearless cheerleader suggests

 

[JDee]

I dunno. I had more than normal issues with cold/flu type things last fall and into Dec but it all seemed relatively normal for the season, there's always a lot of that stuff when the season changes into winter. After a trip to Cuba came home and immediately went into a really bad episode of fever/chills/flu type stuff but it only lasted almost exactly 24 hours. I had been on a plane and they are little germ incubators and spreaders. That was well before I even recall hearing about the Wuhan flu.

Where I live we only have 13 cases in the entire county but despite that low number most people are still trying to not be overly stupid about things.

 

[Fat Boss]

I talked to my Dr today and she's going to order an antibodies test for me. Might take a couple weeks though.

 

[Tonymustang302]

I talked to my Dr today and she's going to order an antibodies test for me. Might take a couple weeks though.

to see if you are immune to it? I was thinking same thing.

 

[Grant 302]

to see if you are immune to it? I was thinking same thing.

That’s what I want it for. But not wanting to ‘waste’ a test for myself just yet, since I ‘work’ from home anyway.