DOW 23,000+ today?

[Fat Boss]

Well that was a big bump today. Dow +5%.

 

[Grant 302]

Well that was a big bump today. Dow +5%.

Exactly what I meant when I said 'sharp bounce' ...and 'any day' was apparently today!

 

[Bill Pemberton]

Could be ready for another big drop today .........roller coaster rides for free this year!

 

[TymeSlayer]

Historical rides to boot. Reacting to the insanity of it all is the worst mistake one can make.

 

[Bill Pemberton]

Tyme, you have a historical ride with ole Blue , and running it out at High Plains Raceway is your idea of a roller coaster ride, ha?

 

[TymeSlayer]

There's more risk in the market than me on any track!
I may miss out with NASA at HPR this year because of scheduling, unless I find another group to run with. I may spent some tyme with the NASA boys at PPIR in June.

 

[Bill Pemberton]

Agree with that assessment! You move a lot slower than the Market has been doing this year, ha,ha. Seriously, you need to consider coming out to Topeka, Ks. as the track is the smoothest one in the Midwest since it was repaved. Long drive , but there are three dates with NASA Central this year!!

 

[TymeSlayer]

I'll look up the schedule on their website.

 

[Grant 302]

Price action last week was exactly the type of move I was looking at for 'confirmation'/bottom signals. Not gonna hang my hat on this, and will continue to carry 'cheap' hedge/insurance positions for now. Started the buy cycle on Friday and expect that to continue for a while.

Good luck to all in 2019!

 

[Fat Boss]

I read an article that was talking about how a lot of hedge funds lost their asses in the last part of 2018 and closed up shop. Part of closing up shop is selling all their remaining assets to return to the customers. Does that sound plausible?

 

[Grant 302]

Sounds plausible. Failure to actually *be* hedged for that time period would kill your credibility. I can see how the price action would fool most or many.

 

[VoodooBoss]

I read an article that was talking about how a lot of hedge funds lost their asses in the last part of 2018 and closed up shop. Part of closing up shop is selling all their remaining assets to return to the customers. Does that sound plausible?

Yes this happens all the time. It was huge back in 08/09 in the financial crisis. I worked in our HF group at the time and made many "redemption calls". I haven't been following them too closely over the last six months but it's quite possible this helped increase the volatility we've seen over the past six months.

 

[Grant 302]

I always learn something when I talk to people who worked in finance...especially market makers.

 

[Fat Boss]

As I recall, the gist of it was the hedge fund guys n gals have an agreement on a min return to investors, plus more if it performs well enough. Well, these funds had decided to reverse course in Sep which shellacked them. They then determined that since so much was lost they're better off closing shop than trying to recoup the losses and pay out gains.

I'm having lunch with an old boss at LRCX tomorrow. Might jump ship from AMAT. It's a good time to lock in a nice chunk of RSU's.

 

[VoodooBoss]

Hedge funds and private equity funds charge what's called 2 and 20. Meaning they charge a 2% annual management fee that gets paid regardless if they make money or not, and then take 20% of any profits. They typically have hurdle rates and clawbacks in the agreements. HF typically have redemptions on a quarterly or annual basis with a notification period of anywhere from 30 days to one year. PE funds typically have lockups of 10 years or more. There's always exceptions to all of this. Redemptions that took place in Q4 were in place before the recent round of volatility started.

If you or your kids want to work in finance and make lots of money with some stability work in PE. Or become a lawyer that writes iron clad PE limited partnership agreements or LPA's.

 

[Fat Boss]

Just become a blood sucking corporate lawyer. I have a buddy that got a $250k raise going from one corporate attorney position to one at an Amazon subsidiary.

 

[302BOB]

Just become a blood sucking corporate lawyer.

All lawyers learn that skill in law school...also chasing ambulances.....

 

[VoodooBoss]

I read an article that was talking about how a lot of hedge funds lost their asses in the last part of 2018 and closed up shop. Part of closing up shop is selling all their remaining assets to return to the customers. Does that sound plausible?

I went skiing this past weekend with a friend of mine that runs a hedge fund program for a large bank. He said the word on the street is that at least 500 HF's will be closing up shop. Those decisions were made in Q3/4 so some redemptions have been in place with more to come.

 

[Grant 302]

That's just sad. Those are supposed to be the people that understand what hedging is and are paid well to do it. I'm still hedging a bit on the 'loose' side and expect to tighten it up a bit if or as markets go up. And that's just to catch the 'normal' small type downswings. I'm thinking at least mid 24k in the coming days. Still bullish on this weeks expiry.

And anyone remember that @TymeSlayer called the perfect tyme to buy? I hope everyone is enjoying the bounce so far.

 

[Fat Boss]

That's just sad. Those are supposed to be the people that understand what hedging is and are paid well to do it. I'm still hedging a bit on the 'loose' side and expect to tighten it up a bit if or as markets go up. And that's just to catch the 'normal' small type downswings. I'm thinking at least mid 24k in the coming days. Still bullish on this weeks expiry.

And anyone remember that @TymeSlayer called the perfect tyme to buy? I hope everyone is enjoying the bounce so far.

Good work Tyme! I kinda sorta also did by paying off that chunk of change into my 401k...

What's your guys' opinion on the worsening economic climate in China? Is this the start of a worldwide reecession?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...ens-worries-over-ailing-economy-idUSKCN1PA0UW