DOW 23,000+ today?

[Fat Boss]

I'm glad I'm a shareholder of FB, up 13% this morning at this point.

 

[Grant 302]

Andy- Thanks for mentioning AMAT the other week. Bought a long strangle on it (buy OTM calls and puts). It's on one of my watch lists, but I haven't used it for any options fun/side bets yet. Just a handful of contracts for each side. Call side paid well and netted 3x on the pair. Good stuff for trades on the weekly expiries.

 

[Fat Boss]

No problem, Grant. You owe me a beer!

 

[302BOB]

A beer and a pizza..............

 

[Grant 302]

It can be a BIG beer. Maybe two.

A beer and a pizza..............

Bob, you don't want to see what I'd charge you for that pizza.

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From here I'd make more money going up than down...so you know which way it's likely to go tomorrow.

 

[TymeSlayer]

You've cursed the pre-market Grant.

 

[Grant 302]

You've cursed the pre-market Grant.

Did I?

25,1557.65 +157.98 (+0.63%) as I type.

 

[Grant 302]

Just executed a bunch of costless collars on a bunch of stuff that's making 'too much money' IMO. Selling covered calls and paying for put protection (or some strangle where sale of the call is deep enough to pay for both) This is a direct hedge on equities I own. Net it's a credit to the account and protects from downward movement.

 

[VoodooBoss]

This could be a two week run because Trump is going to shut down the government again on Feb 15th.

 

[Grant 302]

That would work perfectly for me!

 

[TMSBOSS]

I don't know that you can give any one person credit for shutting down the government.

 

[TymeSlayer]

Well I be dammed...

And yes, as they say, it takes two to tango. The Dems have a say in the shutdown as well.

 

[Grant 302]

Price action over the last couple of days let me feel like the bigger concerns that we were in a larger timeframe downturn are somewhat relieved. The top of the downward 18Q3 'channel' had been breached and that's one less thing to be 'worried' about. All that means to me is that the next near term downward action, I will be looking for the bounce instead of the 'dump'.

I think next likely target for a pivot is ~25,9 /26k. I won't likely move the insurance positions unless we get there before the end of next week.

 

[VoodooBoss]

I’ve heard a few times now that we’re in a Bear market rally. I’m not buying the Bear market theory. All market cycles end and this one will too but not yet. It will be hard to beat 2018 earnings so I’m not expecting a blow out year but the first half of 2019 should be solid. I’m not as positive on the second half unless we see the trade war with China end with some positive gains for the US.

 

[Fat Boss]

My new Health Savings Account is up 7% in less than two weeks, albeit the price is directly related to Netflix stock price...

 

[302BOB]

I'm having a shutdown in April when my taxes are due....We'll see how well that works out!!!!..

 

[Grant 302]

I think we *could* be near the top of a year+ long bear market. Failure to breach 26k in the next month or two and/or 27k into Q3 would show lack of buying at these levels.

At the moment I'm about 1.6x leveraged to the upside above 25k and about -1.1x under about 24.5k. I'm going to try to keep it about there for another month. Ramp up to -2x or so if I feel the need to hit the panic button.

The only thing I dare to *hope* for is that the volatility doesn't dry up overnight and we go sideways tightly for a year.

 

[302BOB]

Let the money sing and the the music begin!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[302BOB]

Enjoy the festivities while you can...............................

 

[Grant 302]

Hang on to your hats, fellas! Dumped a LOT of the call side making money when we were at -180. Paid for ALL the puts I reinforced yesterday that would protect under about 25.2k. Probably going to be a little bloody tomorrow and likely next week.