Floods, Fires, Fear of Covid!!

[302BOB]

Fabman is it too late to get you another round for your Birthday??..covid be damned!!!!..I saluted your BD earlier with a Bacardi and coke...if you feel dangerous try a Jamaican over proof white rum and coke..if you dare...it'll burn your socks off!!!...

 

[302BOB]

I'll go sit in my corner and pout for a while now.

Sometymes my Hon sends me there to pout...LOL....I most likely deserved it!!!!

 

[Fabman]

Fabman is it too late to get you another round for your Birthday??..covid be damned!!!!..I saluted your BD earlier with a Bacardi and coke...if you feel dangerous try a Jamaican over proof white rum and coke..if you dare...it'll burn your socks off!!!...View attachment 59431

couple shots of Patron silver was enough for me at lunch, but thanks.

 

[TymeSlayer]

Happy belated birthday Sal!

 

[TymeSlayer]

BTW - Saw this late last night. Tyme to get locked and loaded!

 

[TMSBOSS]

Why not, it’s still 2020!!

 

[302BOB]

Those zombies have been around for a while...They've been disguised as politicians....Happy Halloween!!!!!

 

[Mad Hatter]

Great point, where ever you are in the world... Politicians seriously suck more then ever. Its as if all the decent people do not want to run for office any more.,,, and all we get are the scumbags.

 

[Fabman]

Happy belated birthday Sal!

Thanks Tyme.

 

[JAJ]

Found a couple of interesting articles today about the pandemic and the theories about origin and misinformation:

One quote stands out: "misinformation is big business, whether for profit or for political gain. We also live in a country where free speech is a core national value. Together, that makes limiting the exposure of people to misinformation very challenging."

Coronavirus conspiracy theories abound, and they could cause real harm

(HealthDay)—Whenever societies are placed under stress, conspiracy theories blaming this or that nefarious agent for secretly fomenting the threat inevitably arise.

medicalxpress.com

Conspiracy theories about the origins of COVID-19 outweigh science's influence, researchers say

Exposure to conspiracy theories suggesting COVID-19 was human-engineered can have a powerful impact on a person's beliefs, outweighing the influence of science-based messaging and reducing their willingness to act to reduce the spread of the disease, according to new research at Georgia State...

phys.org

 

[Fabman]

Found a couple of interesting articles today about the pandemic and the theories about origin and misinformation:

One quote stands out: "misinformation is big business, whether for profit or for political gain. We also live in a country where free speech is a core national value. Together, that makes limiting the exposure of people to misinformation very challenging."

Coronavirus conspiracy theories abound, and they could cause real harm

(HealthDay)—Whenever societies are placed under stress, conspiracy theories blaming this or that nefarious agent for secretly fomenting the threat inevitably arise.

medicalxpress.com

Conspiracy theories about the origins of COVID-19 outweigh science's influence, researchers say

Exposure to conspiracy theories suggesting COVID-19 was human-engineered can have a powerful impact on a person's beliefs, outweighing the influence of science-based messaging and reducing their willingness to act to reduce the spread of the disease, according to new research at Georgia State...

phys.org

Talking the devils advocate here....
That depends on who's information one believes. If a major conspiracy were underway, wouldn't the sponsors of said conspiracy also promote disinformation to transfer the blame? I mean, who exactly is the sole arbiter of truth and accuracy? The government? Right, because they have never lied to us...If I've learned anything lately it is that the ones screaming disinformation the loudest are usually the ones promoting it. So tell me, what exactly is the gold standard of truth and who exactly gets to decide what that truth is in an age when integrity has all but vanished?

 

[Fabman]

 

[Grant 302]

View attachment 59447

No. It explains the US having a significantly higher mortality (death) rate than the #2 country, India.



Ironically, people complaining about under-reporting or over-reporting issues, don’t seem to get that it would throw some other stat out of whack.

So should we conclude that contracting Covid in the US is more dangerous or fatal than in India?

How would the conspiracy crowd explain the numbers in Mexico?

Different things make me go hrm...

 

[JAJ]

I think I mentioned earlier that USA death stats aren't that different than the rest of the world. Here you go.

Looking at the graph, if I had to pick a death rate to question, it wouldn't be the US one. Note the disclaimer in the heading of the graph about CFR being a poor measure. It's true - the more useful measure is IFR, Infection Fatality Rate, which is more meaningful because it reflects your actual risk of dying. Thing is, IFR is harder to measure. CFR is the number of deaths divided by the number of detected cases. IFR is deaths divided by detected cases plus the cases that go undetected. You can only detect undetected cases by doing population wide post infection antibody testing. Most recent estimate of global IFR is around 0.8% but it varies with the age and health of the population.

If the mathematically inclined in the audience think "wait - does a US CFR of 2.5% mean that we're only detecting 1/3 of the cases?" the answer is yes. Back in the summer, tests of post-infection antibodies in NYC and California indicated that only 1 in 8 cases were being detected. 1 in 3 is a big improvement.

 

[Fabman]

No. It explains the US having a significantly higher mortality (death) rate than the #2 country, India.

View attachment 59448

Ironically, people complaining about under-reporting or over-reporting issues, don’t seem to get that it would throw some other stat out of whack.

So should we conclude that contracting Covid in the US is more dangerous or fatal than in India?

How would the conspiracy crowd explain the numbers in Mexico?

Different things make me go hrm...

I think you missed the point.

 

[302BOB]

Our Mayor has gone back to the State's "phase 2" protocols Friday, which are more strict than the state's phase 3 plan that began earlier last week.He also has posted a curfew for all non-essential activities effective immediately.. This is in response to our city being elevated to red alert status due to a high rise in covid infections.. That is most likely tied to a growing number of large indoor parties with no distancing or masks. The people attending these events obviously don't understand or care about why there are rules in place at this time to try and slow the spread of this pandemic.............quietest Halloween I ever saw last nite....it's a tough job , but I guess I gotta eat all them Reeses myself...Hon not a big fan........................

 

[Mad Hatter]

I think the only relevant stat is the Mortality rate as in per population. In That case the USA is down from the top, but growing fast. Just using the number of cases or deaths does not give a accurate picture yet. Assuming we have many more cases then we know about,... Could easily be at least double. The only good thing about that is that the mortality rate would go down to around 1% or less.

Countries like India have very young populations and no one has a clear idea of who is dying from what. Then on the other hand, Japan is a aging population, and they have a very low death rate per population.. But then they always have had a culture of wearing masks in flue season.

Looking at the Spanish flue, the ranges of fatality estimates going from low of 17 million to a high of 100 million people!! Thank god this is not that flue, though for some, that's a cold comfort.

Stay safe, wash your paws, avoid crowds, wear a mask when you can, and prepare your cars!

 

[Coz]

I think part of the reason for our higher mortality rate versus that of other countries, is that a much higher percentage of our population is in nursing homes. Whereas, in many other countries, they live in extended family households.

 

[Grant 302]

I think the only relevant stat is the Mortality rate as in per population

It’s certainly the most accurate or hardest to ‘fake’. But unfortunately also a bit lagging, because people who die, don’t die immediately. So if it was the only metric tracked or observed, you’d only know about a spike far too late to do anything about it.

 

[Mad Hatter]

True, relevant, was the wrong word, accurate, would have been a better one.... The infection rate etc are good indicators as you said, and they dont look very promising. Lets hurry up with the vaccine, though it will be some time in mid 2021 I suppose.

We are having a hot dry spring so our numbers are getting better every day. even thinking of going to a track day on the 12th of this month.... Kinda of nervous since its been ages since i mounted some slicks in anger.